DAVAO CITY, Philippines, Dec 30 (Reuters) - Maoist rebels in the Philippines have come back to peace negotiations not to end their four-decade insurgency but to ensure they do not lose support and relevance to a popular government.
The Maoists’ demands and talk of a strategic stalemate show a negotiated peace is unlikely, despite government optimism a deal can be reached within its six-year term.
Analysts see the communists’ return to the negotiating table as a tactical move aimed at regaining some popular support and erasing the terrorist label imposed by the United States and Europe, as the army looks to non-military methods to weaken them.
"In the history of communist rebellion in the country, they usually enter into talks when they are at their weakest political and military levels," Earl Parreno, analyst at the Institute for Political and Electoral Reforms, told Reuters.
Active in 69 of 80 provinces across the country, the New People’s Army (NPA) has waged guerrilla war for more than 40 years. The conflict has killed 40,000 people and stunted economic growth in poor but resource-rich rural areas.
The two sides have agreed to resume formal peace talks in February next year in Oslo after an impasse of more than five years, following a Christmas ceasefire. [ID:nSGE6B206M]
"We will not enter into peace negotiations if we can’t get anything out from it," Jorge Madlos, spokesman for the Maoists’ political arm, the National Democratic Front, told reporters at a ceremony marking the movement’s 42nd anniversary.
"We are not looking forward for a power-sharing deal with this rotten system. If there should be peace talks, it must address the root causes of our country’s social problems."
Some 80 armed guerrillas, most of them in their teens and including a handful of women, paraded at the ricefield gathering of nearly 3,000 supporters on southern Mindanao island, waving placards that read "Support the peace talks" and "Long live the revolution". [ID:nSGE6BP00E].
Muslim separatists based in Mindanao have also waged a four-decade insurgency against the government. The government is also trying to pursue peace talks with them, but efforts to resume negotiations have stalled. [ID:nSGE6AG054].
DECLINING FORCE
The NPA parade was held at a farming community at the foot of an east-coast mountain range, a five-hour drive from Davao City. Supporters feasted on roasted pig, a local delicacy, and the rebels sang the Internationale and other revolutionary songs.
The crowd was certainly passionate. But while the NPA remains active in poor rural areas, its strength has declined.
At the height of the insurgency in the mid-1980s, the NPA had more than 25,000 fighters as the brutality of dictator Ferdinand Marcos fuelled support among the poor. Its strength is now estimated at around 5,000 and the United States and some European nations have labelled it a terrorist organisation.
Madlos, a frail-looking 62 year-old based in Surigao, an impoverished mining and timber province on Mindanao, said the rebels wanted a strategic stalemate — where neither side makes major gains and the insurgency persists — within five years.
A veteran of more than 30 years of the insurgency also known as "Ka" (Comrade) Oris, Madlos told supporters the rebels had expanded their influence in the south, organised more bases, launched 250 tactical offensives and seized 200 weapons from soldiers in the last 12 months — actions which analysts say calls into question what a new round of talks can achieve.
"The sheer amount of recent NPA violence suggests that the NPA is nowhere near close to laying down its arms," consultancy Pacific Strategies & Assessments (PSA) said in a recent report.
PSA said it recorded 512 cases of NPA-related violence in the first nine months of 2010. In 2004 and 2005, when formal talks were last held, it recorded 406 and 516 incidents respectively.
"While the Aquino administration has expressed desire to negotiate without any precondition, there is no indication that the communists are willing to concede or capitulate on their demands," the report said.
POPULAR GOVERNMENT
Parreno said the landslide victory of Benigno Aquino in the presidential election in May had caused serious rifts within the rebel movement, after most senior leaders made a mistake in openly supporting a losing candidate, Senator Manuel Villar.
The unpopularity of Aquino’s predecessor had meant the rebels could stall talks over the past five years with no serious consequences among the rural population that underpins it.
"But Aquino is an entirely different story," Parreno said.
"It would be difficult for them to get the people on their side under an immensely popular Aquino. At this stage, no amount of propaganda could possibly demonise the president, so they could only either swim or drown under the present situation."
The optimism in the new government under Aquino and its focus on alleviating poverty could further erode the rebels’ strength. [ID:nSGE6BK03M]
Rodolfo Mendoza, a retired police general and head of a security-related research institute, said the rebels were going back to negotiations to gain wider political support at home and abroad and freshen their image as a revolutionary group.
"The rebels will never abandon their armed struggle and will only use the negotiations to enhance their goal to overthrow the government," Mendoza said.
Major-General Jorge Segovia, an army division commander in Davao region on Mindanao, said while the rebels could not win militarily, the insurgency would persist as long as social problems were not addressed.
"There has been a paradigm shift in our efforts to combat the communist insurgency, realising the centre of gravity in this conflict is not the rebels’ political leadership or the armed wing, but the people that provide sanctuary and support."
Last week, the army unveiled a new counter-insurgency plan, focusing on measures to cut poverty and address social issues to defeat the Maoists. [ID:nSGE6BK03M]
The rebels often attack farms, mines and other industries to raise funds for their fight. Segovia said they were the country’s most serious internal security threat, weighing down economic growth and rural development.
"The real strength of the rebels can actually be measured by how businesses would respond to extortion threats," Segovia said.
