Thailand voted on Sunday in an election that will test whether one of Asia's most promising nations can end a six-year crisis marked by bloody protests, military crackdowns and growing tension between rich and poor.
Opinion polls give a firm lead to the opposition Puea Thai (For Thais) party led by Yingluck Shinawatra over Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva’s Democrat Party, but it is less clear she will win by enough votes to form a government.
"Thank you, supporters who have been so kind to me," Yingluck, who could become Thailand’s first woman prime minister, said outside a polling booth in Bangkok.
But as Thais voted, the figure at the heart of the election was in self-imposed exile in another region. Former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, Yingluck’s elder borther, is not on any ballot but the vote is seen as a referendum on his return.
From Dubai, he has helped direct his sister’s campaign, calling her his "clone" — a comment that resonates in the vote-rich heartlands where he is idolised as the first politician to pay attention to the needs of millions living outside Bangkok.
His red-shirted supporters, mainly the rural and urban poor, brought Bangkok’s commercial district to a standstill in 11 weeks of protests last year, shuttering five-star hotels before an army crackdown in which 91 people were killed and 2,000 wounded.
"I want peace. I want a change in Thailand," said Suwanee Thila, a government worker and red-shirt supporter in Ban Sampran, a village outside Udon Thani in Thailand’s northeast.
The red shirts have rallied around Yingluck and accuse Abhisit of colluding with the army to rule with impunity — grievances that have simmered since a 2006 military coup overthrew her brother.
Thaksin, a former telecommunications tycoon, scored landslide election wins in 2001 and 2005 by appealing to the poor with a trove of populist policies, from cheap credit to universal healthcare. Yingluck hopes to tap his supporters.
In the balance is Thailand’s reputation as "The Land of Smiles", an image that collapsed last year amid scenes of horror: military snipers firing on demonstrators, mysterious black-clad gunmen rallying behind protesters, banks on fire and grenades exploding in the business district.
Abhisit, 46, an urbane economist born in Britain and educated at Oxford, has warned that Thailand could return to instability if Yingluck wins. He blames the red shirts for the violence and casts Thaksin as an authoritarian crony capitalist and fugitive.
His backers — the royalist establishment and urban middle class — want Thaksin to serve a two-year prison term for conflict of interest offences. They say a vote for Yingluck is a clear vote for an amnesty for Thaksin.
"Voters do not want a government to come in and whitewash corruption charges. We have to believe in the court system," Korbsak Sabhavasu, chairman of the Democrat Party’s strategy team, said before the vote.
Abhisit is also looking for a mandate from the people after coming to power in a controversial 2008 parliamentary vote when a pro-Thaksin ruling party was dissolved by the courts. His Democrats have not won an election in nearly 20 years.
"This election is very important to every one of us," Abhisit said as he waded through a mob of journalists to vote.
POPULIST POLICIES
The polls close at 3 p.m. and the first indication of the winner could come within an hour. The official result is expected late in the evening.
Throughout the six-week campaign, the two sides have presented similar populist campaigns of subsidies for the poor, improved healthcare benefits and infrastructure investment including high-speed rail systems across the country.
But a risk of violence lies in the margin of a Puea Thai win and the reaction of the red shirts. The military, which has a habit of intervening in Thai politics through the coup d’etat, may also be central to what happens after the vote.
The election will be Thailand’s 26th since it became a democracy in 1932, ending seven centuries of absolute monarchy. It has since been governed by 17 constitutions and has experienced 18 military coups, either actual or attempted.
Former Public Health Minister Phra Rakkiart warned Sunday’s election would go down as the "dirtiest in history".
"Canvassers sell lottery tickets to voters and offer them a big reward if their candidates win in the election," the Bangkok Post quoted him as saying, adding that election fraud was ingrained.
The fear of a return to violence is real.
According to some reports, the Puea Thai camp is in talks with the generals to find some way of working together should it emerge victorious. Puea Thai would be allowed to govern and the military top brass would remain in place, with early reshuffles limited to middle ranks.
But if Puea Thai wins the most votes and fails to find partners to form a coalition government — or if it wins an outright majority and is barred from governing through judicial intervention — Thailand could face a wave of new protests.
"If they cheat, there will be protests in Bangkok for sure," said Tan Chaithep, chief assistant of the red shirt village of Nong Hoo Ling.
To guard against election fraud, some 180,000 police will be on duty. Thais have been urged to vote early to avoid possible heavy rain and flooding.
