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Volatility

9 October 2008, 00:05 | Yuliya Popova, Kyiv Post Staff Writer
Volatility
UNIAN
President Victor Yushchenko, Prime
Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and Verkhovna
Rada’s acting speaker Arseniy Yatsenyuk
arrive at a business forum in January.
As global economic storm clouds gather, Yushchenko is faltering and Tymoshenko is playing up the role of ‘scorned’ woman. Many in Ukraine and abroad want a new political face to emerge. Is Yatsenyuk the answer? The Kyiv Post tracks the trio.

 

LVIV, Ukraine – Most of Ukraine’s 60-some palaces and castles are in the western part of the nation. And most are in various states of disrepair and dilapidation.

As such, they provide apt metaphors for the state of Ukrainian President Victor Yushchenko’s political career. The pro-Western president isn’t doing so well these days in his own west, once a stronghold of his bedrock support.

How bad is it?

The performance of the Orange Revolution hero even has fresh university graduates pining for the good old days of ex-President Leonid Kuchma and ex-Prime Minister Victor Yanukovych.

“During Kuchma’s and Yanukovich’s time, prices were stable. Russia was not at our throat,” said Ihor Barvinkov. “Now it seems that we are living in a gas gulag because of Yuschenko’s Westernization efforts.”

The evidence is far more than anecdotal.

While western Ukraine supported Yushchenko’s Our Ukraine bloc in the 2006 parliamentary election, the presidential group slipped into second place behind the Bloc of Yulia Tymoshenko in the 2007 contest.

And last month’s poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology shows 40.4 percent of western Ukrainians would vote for Tymoshenko as president, while only 14.4 percent would back Yushchenko. The pro-presidential Our Ukraine forces would fare even worse in a parliamentary election, winning support from only 9.2 percent.

Yushchenko traveled to this chilling climate on Oct. 2, reminding foreign investors at the International Economic Forum in Lviv that 2008 is the year of castles.

It was hard to tell from his manner whether he knows he is no longer perceived as a knight in shining armor fighting off Eastern kings and signing treaties with Western legions. He looked confident and self-composed as if the skies were still clear.

He spoke of market dynamics, Euro 2012 soccer tournament prospects and unified energy systems, whatever that means.

In short, he asked for money.

“For 1,000 years, families of local counts were related to Western families,” Yushchenko said. “I know this is an ill time to talk about joining the EU (European Union). But we need more from our relationship now.”

“Ukraine needs a billion here and a billion there (dollars) – to build roads, to promote tourism, and for many other projects.”

During a coffee break, businessmen from world-famous companies spoke of mines, hotels and airports soon to take off in Ukraine. PricewaterhouseCoopers, the financial and crisis management giant, ran a commercial on big plasma screens with the logo “connected thinking.”

A floor down from the elegant conference hall in Lviv National University, three women working in a cloak room looked rather disconnected from the event upstairs.

They spoke of disappointment in their political leaders, especially in Yushchenko.

“We are paupers and they are aristocracy,” said Natalia Stetsko, 50, who started working in the university three years ago. “It will be long before we feel the effects of this meeting.”

Like her colleagues, she voted for Yushchenko and his party in three consecutive elections. But now she is not sure any more.

“He’s been scolding Yulia Tymoshenko for triggering inflation when she started paying people back their savings which devalued in the ‘90s. What about those thousands that they earn regularly, don’t they instigate the inflation?” Stetsko said, complaining of meager social benefits.

Passing designer label jackets to bankers, she said that she had just enough money for food, let alone new clothing.

The cloakroom women agreed that they would rather vote for students in this university than for Yushchenko again.

The head of the Lviv District Administration, Mykola Kmit, appointed by Yushchenko, sensed a storm rising among his residents. “We’ll only be able to say that we have succeeded when the pensioners say so,” Kmit said.

Eager to revamp his region in preparation to Euro 2012, he is positive that the president’s efforts will pay off soon.

“We need to move in the direction of the EU. Lublin and Zheshiv (Polish eastern regions bordering Ukraine) secured two billion dollars from the EU easily. We are fighting for a billion,” he said, trying to explain the reasons behind Yushchenko’s pro-Western agenda. Kmit is anticipating more workplaces and better salaries as a result of foreign investment.

People working the land in the village Bilyi Kamin, 75 kilometers from Lviv, could probably attest to Kmit’s plans. British agricultural business, Landkom International Plc, utilized fallow fields, brought new machinery and employed some 800 local farmers a year ago. “They’ve never seen modern tractors before. The fields were covered in weeds when we came,” said farming administrator, Kostyantyn Zolotukhin. Growing oilseed rape and wheat, he said, farmers get paid five times more than people in nearby villages.

He commended Yushchenko for lobbying foreign investment in Ukraine and relaxing visa rules. Nevertheless, Zolotukhin missed the parliamentary vote last year.

Back in the city, Barvinkov, 24, in his old Lada that is now a taxi, was seeing a seamy side of European integration. Grumbling at another pothole on the road, he said that he felt no changes since Yushchenko took office.

Graduating from Lviv Technical University with a degree in management, Barvinkov failed to find a permanent workplace. He said that earning $800 a month for driving around the city was more than a run-of-the-mill manager’s salary. Barvinkov regretted taking Yushchenko’s side during the Orange Revolution, a peaceful uprising in 2004 which swept the president to power.

At this snapshot in time, the president’s western castle seems to have turned into flat sand, attracting fewer visitors and even fewer admirers.

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  Comments (21)
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Guest    (Guest) | 11.10.2008, 14:09
I\'m American, I have lived in Ukraine, and I see how much potential she has to prosper. However, just as in my native country, ego and greed creates artificial realities in political circles. If the population is allowed to be creative and given freedom to start businesses, do commerce globally without excessive \"red tape\" and numerous obstacles, Ukraine will in fact become a serious partner in world affairs. She has good people, intellectual capital, and copious resources. What she needs now is wise leaders, those who will encourage Ukrainians be inventive and productive, without gaining votes by throwing cookies to them. Ukrainians are excellent cooks...let them make their OWN recipes for success. Get out of their way and let them do it. America?? The same problem... We all need wiser leaders.
kafqdqrb    (Guest) | 10.10.2008, 06:50
wrzfgkgb bqytxfij http://gbtjxcjh.com nurokeio dyjopsmc nzusqwzo
matthew    (Guest) | 10.10.2008, 06:02
Well written article.
Equally well stated thoughts fron \"Common Worker\".
My fear as an American in USA watching Ukraine with severe growing pains, would be the the future is decided by emotional haste, something we Americans repeatedly do to ourselves.
For instance the Global economic mess is largely the result of our childish thinking and emotional choice of Presidents past. The present incarnation of economic \"creativity\" has roots nestled in our psyche against looking squarely in the mirror and admitting limitations; we rather, put on a shallow show of diffidence and continue with the \"smoke and mirror\" tricks. Always the cost is borne by the common people, and the peoples of the World who are caught in the cross currents.

Returning to Ukraine, my fears are that in a rush to become NATO certified and EU centered the great unique and loving nature of Ukraine will be lost.
Get Yulia in first, then work to define (refine) Ukraine for Ukraine alone.
NATO only if absolutely needed.
Jean Louis    (Guest) | 09.10.2008, 20:37
I can\'t wait to see Yulia as President ! which should be soon. I am very hesitant whether she will have the guts to do what is needed. I don\'t think Youshenko\'s problem is the lack of willpower that people systematically accuse him of. The house is rotten to its very core. Everybody is on the take, it is a free for all... a friend of mine, who is about to take a driving test, was this week offered (by an official, approved Driving School) the real course, four months, or just simply buying the driving Licence for a little more money. From top to bottom, the country is rotten. Which politician will/can clean it up? I am not optimistic....
elmer    (Guest) | 09.10.2008, 17:10
Good article! To say the least, Yushchenko\'s actions are extremely disappointing. How can a person who was so right be so wrong? He relies on Baloha, the llittle thug, to tell him everything is OK. Why put the country through this insanity? Ukrainian politicians have only one agenda - how to make themselves prosperous. Yushchenko has not changed that. Tymoshenko, Lutsenko and others have tried - only to be beaten down by Yushchenko and Yanukovych and Akhmetov and others. I hope that Tymoshenko gets 51% of the vote. I hope that she is joined by Lutsenko, Yatseniuk, Tarasyuk, Hrytsenko and others who actually believe in democracy. I hope that the people in silly Donbass finally realize that the Party of Regions will do nothing for them - except to watch them blow up in mines. Ukraine deserves better than a president who relies on a thug like Baloha, and who has a personal psychosis about Tymoshenko.
Guest    (Guest) | 12.10.2008, 13:33
The whole article is about people who expected economic improvement from the Orange Revolution and it didn\'t come to them personally. They\'re complaining about the pot holes in the road and you\'re going on about politics in Kiev as if having Tym or Yasts as President instead of Yushchenko will suddenly mend all the pot holes in the country and get everyone a decent job. That\'s the whole trouble with the article as well. It takes a lot of economic expectations that were disappointed, as if the revolution was going to make a poor country rich in a four years. The people quoted blame Yush and the article just follows in their wake as if the President was really responsible and let everyone down because still not everyone has the standard of living they were hoping for.
Richard Lucas    (Guest) | 09.10.2008, 17:09
I live in the UK and visited Lviv recently on business. Far from the disappointed run-down depressed people your pages seem to describe i found it a charming, clean, vibrant albeit small city. I was only there for a few days it is true and did not get much time to meet many local residents but those i did meet seemed very upbeat about the propects for the region and life in general and fully understood that coming out of the soviet shadow was never going to be an easy and pain free process. I suggest a bit less downbeat propaganda and a bit more reality from the real people. If the citizens of the Ukraine really think that living under Russian control was better than freedom then they are either too young to have really experienced it or forgetful! Freedom has its downs as well as ups as we are all experiencing at the moment but I would still choose freedom any time of any day.
Mike    (Guest) | 09.10.2008, 19:42
So you spent a few days in Ukraine and decided to give them a lecture on how to live properly? How fats you are.

But thanks for the poor people of Ukraine, who had some hope that their color revolution would change their life. They expected among others your country to help them economically. So we gave them lectures about how cool it is to be free. But we quickly forgot the implicit promise of economical help.

Dear Richard, you\'d need to spend a year in an Ukrainian village, on their pay and see the prices rise every week. This might give you another perspective.
Guest    (Guest) | 10.10.2008, 15:51
You\'re writing nonsense Mike. Uprising of the Ukrainians was to gain freedom not to get cash from the UK. It demonstrates clearly that you have zero knowledge of the subject.
Mike    (Guest) | 10.10.2008, 21:36
You\'re right, because my country has other priorities right now than send money to the successful beacon of democracy. Good luck.
Western Guest    (Guest) | 09.10.2008, 16:20
What I see as an outside observer,is that people of Ukraine expect quick actions by their politicians to help make their lives and country better.The problem with that is,most of the politicians have their own agenda or plan as how to make Ukraine more prosperous and a better place to live and do business.The government of Ukraine is dysfunctional and the President of Ukraine knows this,which is why he talks about dissolving parliament.He see\'s Yuliya running back to Russia and Putin and dragging Ukraine back into their sphere of influence along with her.
Many people in Ukraine as talked about in this article,seem to want to go back to how things were when Russia paid for what they needed to live (to be dependent on the government to take care of their every need).
Maybe they expect the same from the democratically elected government of Ukraine?
Ukraine might need russia\'s fuel but russia needs the money from the sale of fuel from Ukraine and Europe. They are Dependent on each other.
Guest    (Guest) | 09.10.2008, 16:10
Ukrain-Bashi Yushchenko dancing on Titanic deck
That is the image given by Ukrainian politicians to the Western European countries, with Ukrain-Bashi Yushchenko as Director of the folkloric orchestra. How should Western countries accept to get such people in NATO and UE?
When the kindergarten is finished, maybe it will be time for EU to discover there is a country to discuss seriously with between Ankara and Moscow....
In 4 years Ukrainbashi was unable to work properly with 3 different Rada, 4 governments, and poll will change nothing
Mike    (Guest) | 09.10.2008, 15:17
This, again, demonstrates the involvement of Moscow in Ukrainian politics.

When is Putin going to let lose????
Guest    (Guest) | 09.10.2008, 10:59
The Kiev Post has just become a propaganda sheet for Yulia. You could have easily found this number of \"disappointed in Yulia\". But that wouldn\'t have fitted your purpose.You blame the President for doing a bad job but your journalism is giving a totally biased picture to prop up the person you support and portray the President as finished, a disaster. Why don\'t you be honest at least and call yourselves the Yulia Post. Democracy doesn\'t only need competant politicians it also needs honest journalists.
Yuliya Popova    (Guest) | 09.10.2008, 15:04
I have written this article, dear Guest, not to promote Yulia or kill Yushchenko. I was interested in going to Lviv to see how life\'s changed there since the Orange euphoria. I remember my relatives there crying of joy as they watched Maidan heroes take office. They don\'t cry any more, they are bitterly disappointed. I spoke to the people, I asked how they feel about politicians, who they like/dislike the most, how their lives changed in the course of the 3 elections in the last 4 years. What you read is what you get. There is no spin or fake color. Read the surveys about Yushenko\'s and Yulya\'s popularity in western Ukraine and then judge if you feel like you have the right.
Guest    (Guest) | 10.10.2008, 15:51
1. \"The evidence is far more than anecdotal\" - but the evidence you go on to give is all anecdotal. Obivously a poll, which you didn\'t use in this article, would be not anecdotal but even those seem to vary widely. It turns out that the one the Post quoted (and which was then quoted all over the world because nobody bothers to read anything but English) is, by far the most favourable to Tym. Check me out because I only read English. At least the Post could quote all the availlable polls which is what is done, say in the UK media.
2. I find it hard to believe that the western part of Ukraine is 100% against Yushchenko which is what your article is saying. All of the people quoted in the article spoke against Yushchenko, except for one who you implied wasn\'t even impressed enough to vote for him. Really you couldn\'t find anyone who was prepared to defend him or critisice Tym? \"How bad is it\" turns out to be a rhetorical question. The answer was already determined beforehand.
Guest    (Guest) | 10.10.2008, 16:47
Sorry, you did quote a poll: \"And last month’s poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology shows 40.4 percent of western Ukrainians would vote for Tymoshenko as president, while only 14.4 percent would back Yushchenko. The pro-presidential Our Ukraine forces would fare even worse in a parliamentary election, winning support from only 9.2 percent. \"
1. Firstly my complaint still stands that this was the outfit that had the most favourable numbers for Tym. .
2. 14.4% is not 0% and 40.4 leaves room for complaints against Tym as well as Yush. But nothing on either count. \"I spoke to the people\" etc, a journalist can\'t interview a representative sample herself, so to give a fair picture you\'d have to use a poll and then find representatives of the 14.4%. Why should only arguments against Yush be aired and none against Tym?
3. Read the surveys about Yushenko\\\'s etc. There were some very bitter comments against Yulia from W Ukraine on the internet. Were they totally atypcial?
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