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CRISIS

23 October 2008, 10:19 | Stephen Bandera, Kyiv Post Editor
CRISIS
An elderly woman checks a coin in front
of a Kyiv bakery. The nation faces the
global financial crisis with Europe's
highest inflation rate and in need
possibly of a $15 billion loan from the
International Monetary Fund.
How much must one nation suffer?

As the aftershocks of the global financial crisis start reverberating throughout the nation, Ukraine’s leaders were, for a second week, holding talks with the International Monetary Fund on a multi-billion-dollar emergency loan.

The leadership also struggled to adopt measures to protect the country’s economy amid political chaos and sharply sliding exports of key commodities, such as steel.

The concerns for all Ukrainians, especially the poorest, could mount soon. The government will be forced to take belt-tightening measures in exchange for IMF help, increasing hardships for the poorest citizens. Meanwhile, an inflation rate that could hit an annual rate of 25 percent continues to erode everyone’s purchasing power.

Speaking on television early Oct. 22, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko warned that the government might reduce the state bureaucracy by 20 percent and freeze social social benefits, such as pensions, which are now indexed for inflation. “Ukraine has to tame its social appetites … we have to cut spending that Ukraine cannot afford,” Tymoshenko said.

She insisted that nobody would experience cuts, but pensioners – many of whom make only $100 per month – will feel the most pain.

As the week wore on, a faint silver lining emerged: President Victor Yushchenko and Tymoshenko appeared to finally start coming to an agreement about what needs to be done to save the economy.

Tymoshenko earlier this month downplayed the world financial crisis’ affect on Ukraine. But in recent days, she has talked about emergency measures needed to minimize the expected big blow. The country’s export-oriented economy is sure to suffer.

Tymoshenko assured citizens that the IMF was ready to provide an emergency loan to stabilize the country’s sliding currency and shaky banks, but offered no clarity as to how much funding would be provided and under what conditions.

Reports suggest the IMF may provide a credit line of up to $15 billion.

Yushchenko on Oct. 22 revealed that the nation’s central bank had this month burned through nearly $3 billion in reserves, leaving it with $34.6 billion. And some experts, such as economist Anders Aslund, suggested Ukraine needed “some $20 billion.”

One day earlier, the president called for the creation of a rainy-day fund that could be used to bail out banks in times of need. He also said that measures should be taken to increase state insurance guarantees on bank deposits.

Yushchenko halted his decree calling for early Dec. 7 parliamentary elections so that the Verkhovna Rada could adopt emergency laws. According to the president, the aim is to “prevent a recession from turning into a depression.”

Yet the country’s lawmakers spent the first several days of the week feuding. It remained uncertain whether they would be able to come to a consensus on anti-crisis legislation and the divisive issue of when, or if, snap parliamentary elections would be held.

Tymoshenko said that her government submitted economy-related draft laws to parliament and expressed hope that lawmakers would adopt them in the coming days. “The first is about protecting [Ukraine] from the world financial crisis; the second is on changes to the 2008 state budget,” she said.

Changes in the budget are needed to finance early elections that Tymoshenko opposes as reckless in times of economic crisis. Experts said she also fears losing her job.

But Yushchenko has not backed down on his call for a snap election. In a televised address on Oct. 20, the president said the elections would be held Dec. 14. He later admitted that they could be delayed further. But lawmakers loyal to the president and one of his other rivals, Victor Yanukovych, could muster enough votes to fund an early poll.

“There are enough votes for that in the session hall anyway,” said Ivan Kyrylenko, faction leader for Tymoshenko’s bloc in parliament.

So, as the country’s currency was under pressure and sliding, politicians focused on blaming each other for the economic crisis in an attempt to curry favor with voters.

Experts said the hryvnia, which hit an all-time low of 5.9 against the dollar on Oct. 8, will inevitably depreciate further, as the value of foreign currency swelled due to a widening current account deficit.

Experts said an IMF loan will free up reserves, allowing the central bank to walk the fine line between keeping the currency stable and bringing inflation under control.

A recent IMF report predicted that Ukraine will continue having the highest inflation rate in Europe this year and next, 25 and 19 percent, respectively.

And inflation is what Ukrainians fear most. A majority of Ukrainians expect to see prices rise significantly as a result of the world financial crisis or think that the crisis will not affect them at all, according to a telephone poll commissioned by Korrespondent.net, a sister internet publication of the Kyiv Post.

According to the poll, nearly 50 percent expect a jump in inflation, 21 percent expect nothing, while 8 percent predict the complete collapse of Ukraine’s economy. Only 4 percent fear for their jobs, but the poll’s error margin is 5 percent because it only included 426 respondents.

The poll found that older respondents are more concerned with inflation than their younger counterparts.

Economist Ihor Burakovsky said the rate of inflation will depend on the extent of the domestic and world crises. But, he added, the cost for heavily-subsidized utilities will have to grow anyway, hitting the pocketbooks of the country’s pensioners.

“Depending on the trajectory of the recession, the government will have to keep a close eye on the pension fund. Measures like indexing pensions to inflation make sense, but if the situation is very dire, then other measures will take priority,” he said.

Economist Victor Lysytskyi, who has served at Ukraine’s central bank and in government, said the country can, if needed, offer support to the country’s most vulnerable households. “Ukraine currently has the opportunity to prevent the impoverishment of the most needy,” he said, without offering specifics.

Ultimately, however, snap parliamentary elections will complicate the efforts of politicians to adopt constructive measures, he warned. “We can avoid a crisis if we say ‘no’ to elections and ensure the parliament and government function normally,” Lysytskyi said.

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elmer    (Guest) | 29.10.2008, 15:36
You are simply WRONG, italianez. Getting new faces into a system that is corrupt and broken does nothing except perpetuate a corrupt and broken system. Right now, Ukraine has a system in place, through party lists, through corrupt money, that simply perpetuates the lavishly rich life of a few oligarchs, through the use and abuse of government. Ukrainians don\'t trust the government. And neither do the people in government - which is why they grant themselves absolute parliamentary immunity - to protect themselves from each other. Which is why they have judges who are bought and paid for, and why they go forum-shopping for courts, seeking their \"owned\" judges. Which is why they send \"bodyguards\" to court. Which is why assorted government officials have mysterious \"heart attacks\" in order to avoid making decisions. The people know it, the politicians know it - the system has to be reformed, to that government represents people, not just a few wealthy oligarchs.
italianez    (Guest) | 28.10.2008, 18:26
It\'s time Ukrainians get rid of Yushchenko, Tymoshenko and Yanukovych. Ukrainians deserve better politicians. New faces, not the old ex- soviet regime. We must admit Yushchenko and Tymoshenko have failed. It\'s up to new politicians to carry on following the ideals of the Orange revolution. Said that, Yushchenko - despite his big mistakes - has shown more responsability than Yulia in the Georgian affair. Yulia has been silent. That\'s a shame. I\'m really disappointed. What has Yulia done so far? Nearly nothing. She has acted like a communist in economy. It didn\'t make any sense to give pensioners their CCCP pension back. That\'s populism. Yushchenko was right in that sense. At least he has a proven track record in economic affairs, but it\'s not enough to rule wisely a country.
Guest    (Guest) | 28.10.2008, 07:42
So Ukrainians: Why you always vote for such politicians like now which are in the RADA or in other jobs ?

Why you don\'t vote just for some nobodys? You have an election paper, just write down other lists or names.
elmer    (Guest) | 27.10.2008, 02:44
More - on the Savik Shuster show, Yanukovych screamed at Yulia about how he knew the coal mines from personal experience. You want mine safety in Ukraine, where the coal mines are among the most dangerous in the world and people die in explosions? Simple - require Zviahilsky (a big, fat thug) and Yanuk, Jr. to go down into the mines with the coal miners. I guarantee you will have the safest mines in the world. You want safe banks in Ukraine? Simple - require every member of the RADA to put their money into a Ukrainian bank, instead of into Cyprus, or Israel, or Switzerland, or Monaco, or Antigua, or Great Britain. I guarantee you that Ukraine will have the best banking system in the world.
elmer    (Guest) | 27.10.2008, 02:41
More - the other thing that needs to happen is that there has to be a limit on campaign contributions. Otherwise, what you get is oligarchs paying several million dollars for a spot on a party list - so they can continue to rob the country blind through the government. Furthermore, the people have to realize that the oligarchs have no loyalty to them. Yanukovych just announced that steelworkers would be laid off. These are the loyal voters that voted for the Party of Regions in \"silly\" Donbas, so that oligarchs could continue to suck money out of steel mills and coal mines into their own pockets to buy yachts, and jets, and golf clubs for Yanukovych. Now, the Party of Regions is simply laying them off, while all the oligarchs get to keep their mansions, and yachts, and jets, and offshore bank accounts in Cyprus and Antigua, as well as accounts in Monaco, Israel, Switzerland, the Netherlands, and Great Britain.
elmer    (Guest) | 27.10.2008, 02:36
Look, President Baloha, er, Yushchenko has done an idiotic thing by calling for snap elections, and it is an absolute shame that he relies on a thug like Baloha. But Yushchenko is only part of the problem. Consider - whom does the RADA represent? I\'ll answer it this way - whom does Yanukovych\'s son, the billiards expert, a member of Parliament in the Party of Regions, represent? Oligarchs - not the people - oligarchs. Yanuk\'s son isn\'t qualified, and he\'s done nothing in parliament except vote the way they tell him to vote. That is due to the party list system. If Yanuk, Jr. had to face the people in his own voting district, one on one with other candidates for Parliament, 2 things would happen - one, the little moron billiards expert would not be elected. Two, each deputy in Parliament would be accountable to the people who elected him or her. As it is, the RADA represents a limited circle of people consisting of Akhmetov, Firtash, Hajduk, Boyko, Kolomoisky and the rest.
Guest    (Guest) | 26.10.2008, 18:17
as long as Yushchenko is allowed to remain President and continues to undermines Ukraine\'s economic and democratic development Ukraine will continue to suffer as a result of his policy of division and instability. Yes the world is struggle to come to terms with the collapse of the US financial system but Ukraine\'s problems in facing this crisis is made worst by Victor Yushchenko\'s inability to provide good governance. Two parliaments in just over one year and another round of parliamentary elections with little prospect of any meaningful change until Yushchenko is removed from Office. Ukraine can not afford to wait one more year Yushchenko must face the people of Ukraine now. As long as Yushchenko is allowed to remain in office Ukraine will continue to suffer from his inability to provide leadership and political stability.
elmer    (Guest) | 26.10.2008, 15:59
And in case people still don\'t know, there have already been enough \'accidental murders\" in Ukraine, with Gongadze, with Vyacheslav Chornovil, with the guy who composed the song \"Chervona Ruta,\" and on and on. The Party of Regions seems to have had some recently, including Kushnyarov and Shuba. It is asinine, insane, immoral and idiotic for someone to suggest that Ukraine simply continue to do the same old thing that was happening under Kuchma. It is time to deal with the problem in an effective, cultured, and responsible way. Everyone knows what the problems are, it\'s out in the open. Yushchenko has correctly said that \"corruption is killing the country.\" So are idiotic, stupid, insane political battles. Everyone is frustrated, but I think Ukraine can solve its problems, which are serious, if the government and the people only put their minds to it - instead of engaging in stupid political battles, or imanufacturing stupid conspiracy theories about \"let\'s kill them all.\"
elmer    (Guest) | 26.10.2008, 15:53
Moscow holds KGB files over Ukraine\'s RADA\'s heads? Well, first, \"there was no crime in the sovok union.\' Second, and more importantly, EVERYONE KNOWS what has been happening for 17 years. It\'s just that the voters were afraid to talk about it until the Orange Revolution, and the voters haven\'t known what to do about it since then. Plus, if Yushchenko had stuck to the written Orange coalition agreement, instead of worrying about Tymoshenko, all of this mess would have stopped, If Tymoshenko had cooperated a bit more with Yushchenko, instead of trying to be a movie star and form a cult of personality, none of this would have happened. Yanuk\'s son is the RADA - why? Does the KGB have filed on \"billiards expert\" Yanuk, Jr.? That\'s his claim to fame - he\'s a billiards expert, but for some reason the Party of Regions found it necessary to stick him into the RADA on a party list. Suggesting murder is an absolutely preposterous, asinine, stupid, immoral and insane idea.
Guest    (Guest) | 25.10.2008, 21:49
Dear ALL, almost every country in the world will suffer under today\'s economic chaos. As far as Ukraine is concerned, well it is somewhat more complicated. What the \"real\" Ukrainians have to do is very simple; they have to take their country back from the thieves. The thieves, which are about 99% of those in the RADA and in all government agencies, must be brought to justice. Most in the RADA are dancing to Moscow\'s tune and at the same time stealing everything they can from Ukraine and filling their bank accounts in Europe, the U.S. and Israel. Moscow\'s KGB, with the help of Kravchuk and his cronies, has taken all the files Ukraine had on every RADA member who committed crimes and worked for the communist party when Moscow ruled. Moscow\'s KGB holds those files over the heads of each RADA member as blackmail to continue to destabilize Ukraine and still make $$$ for themselves. Each RADA member must be accidentally done away with. When that is done, Ukraine will become normal.
Guest    (Guest) | 26.10.2008, 08:47
You think - even if it would be realistic - it would be done with putting the RADA members away ?

No, look back in Ukraines history. During decades of communism, the country and its structure, from down to top, is rotten. Slowly, at some parts, the rotten house is cleaned.

But the problem goes much further than just RADA. It begins with the structure of power in Ukraine - as well as in Russia and the decades of non-democratic tradition.

And Ukraine will suffer more than other countries. Russia has currency reserves, the rest of Eastern Europe is not that poor and gets support from the EU.
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