Apartment burglaries, thefts and petty crimes have spiked in December, say cautious law enforcement officials who hesitate to conclude decisively that Ukraine is becoming more dangerous by the day as desperation mounts in the wake of the economic crisis.

Although official statistics show that overall crime is down in comparison to 2007, a recent swell has been detected. And if the financial crisis in the country worsens, the number of robberies, thefts, and auto thefts will likely increase, Yaroslav Mazurkevych head of police communications department, told journalists this month.

Statistics show the overall crime rate nationwide dropped by 4 percent January-October of this year while the robbery rate through November was down 18 percent. And almost 50,000 fewer apartment burglaries were recorded from January through November.

But panic still reigned in the air of Kyiv, the country’s capital.

In recent weeks, Kyiv’s top cop, Vitaliy Yarema, noticed a doubling of apartment robberies, from an average of 10 to up to 20 per day.

He attributed the surge to heightened criminal activity by individuals who simply “do not have other means by which to exist.”

Nationwide bank fraud also is up 22 percent in the first 11 months, according to Leonid Skalozub, head of the internal affairs economic crime unit. The majority of cases are related to fraudulent credit loans in which bank employees accepted bribes in return for issuing scrupulous loans which were never repaid. Skalozub said that over 50 bribery cases of this kind were investigated and over 68 criminal groups involved were exposed. In total, there were 338 bank fraud cases registered thus far this year.

With 82 percent of Ukrainian companies affected by the economic downturn, according to the Hudson recruitment agency, and an official 2.3 percent – or 650,000 people unemployed as of Dec. 1 – people will turn to criminal activities as a desperate way out, said Mykola Dzhyha, who heads parliament’s committee on organized crime.

“The current economic crisis will cause a rise in crime by 10-15 percent,” the lawmaker said in an interview with the Mirror Weekly newspaper.

The regional situation, especially in the industrial areas where production is slowing to an abrupt halt, isn’t better, Interior Minister Yuriy Lutsenko told journalists earlier this month. In Zaporizhya, the mayor’s office cited a triple hike in the crime rate in the past few months, which is where Ukraine’s largest steel mill, Arcelor Mittal Kryvy Rih, has cut down on production. “Officially there have been no significant trends noticed but if you talk with people on the streets, or with law enforcement employees, there are thefts on the streets and in apartments. Taxi drivers are being held up at knife or gunpoint, and this is not a good indicator, said Victor, who works in Donetek’s steel industry.

The national unemployment rate is up 20.7 percent from October into November. Vinnytsya, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Poltava, Ternopil and Kharkiv Oblasts showed the highest unemployment rates, according to the State Employment Service.

Across the country, people are bracing for hard times. Some have stocked up on staples and foodstuffs in anticipation of rising prices. Others are overheard asking for “something happy or funny to read,” at newspaper stands. And the doors of 24-hour mini-markets are beginning to shut after hours. Items are being sold through night windows.

One psychotherapist explained what goes on in a person’s mind when options become limited.

“As a rule, a person who begins to run out of options after many attempts to improve his material situation transforms into a monomaniac (someone obsessed with a single idea.). They become predisposed to desperation and their consciousness falters in a state of despair to a point where they no longer can fathom the consequences of their actions so that the objective [money/valuables] will be had at any cost,” said Volodymyr Pohorilyi, head of the psychoanalysis section at the Ukrainian Association of Psychotherapy.

Lawyer Tetyana Montian says the crime situation in Ukraine is worsening, and to keep the public calm police are concealing scary trends.

She believes police are fudging statistics or simply not registering crimes altogether in an effort to hide the “true crime wave.”

“Low-ranking police have received orders from the top not to register [or register crimes in lesser categories] on a huge scale,” said Montian, who appeared on the Savik Shuster TV political talk show and accused the deputy head of the Internal Affairs Ministry of not wanting “to let people see the true scope of crimes in society.”

Oleksandr Savchenko, the official she confronted, denied the allegation. He admitted that crime has jumped recently, but not “critically.” He insisted that theft has risen sharply in the western regions of Ukraine due to labor migrants returning home, which he said is cyclical and not out of the ordinary.

Roughly 200,000 out of an estimated 1.5 million labor migrants are expected to return to Ukraine during the holiday season, the Ukraine Helsinki human rights organization reported recently. The civil society organization said mostly construction and seasonal workers will return en masse and predicted that many will find it difficult to find work.

Have a Merry Christmas but as in the “Home Alone” film, it is best nowadays to avoid keeping large amounts of cash at home, and install an alarm system, said Volodymyr Dmytrenko, deputy press spokesperson for the Kyiv police department.

“I’d say 15 percent of apartment burglars are pros. They can open any door, pick any lock,” he added.

The police major said if a person plans to leave their flat for an extended period of time, install a loud alarm system and only inform your neighbors if you absolutely trust them.

The United States Embassy security attache offered -similar advice.

“Install deadbolt locks on all entrance doors. Ask someone you trust to check up on your apartment. Keep your comings and goings private. And install bright lights over your apartment entrance door!” said Ronnie Catipon, a former police officer.

Crime wave or not, cyclical or correlated to the financial crisis, common sense, experts said, and thinking twice before opening your door to anyone, should be exercised.