Editor’s Note: Olena Tregub, a freelance contributor to the Kyiv Post, conducted a series of interviews with German experts on Ukraine. The following is one of them. Wilfried Jilge, lecturer at the University of Leipzig and expert on post-Soviet affairs and Ukrainian history, taught at the University of Potsdam and Humboldt University of Berlin. Since 2005, Jilge is a member of the “Kyiv Dialogue,” an NGOs forum under the auspices of German, European and Ukrainian members of parliament.
Kyiv Post: How would you assess the results of President Viktor Yanukovych’s first year of presidency in comparison to those of the previous Orange leadership?
Wilfried Jilge: The moderate progress in economic and financial policies cannot make up for the steps back made in the in the democratization process. Here I would like to accentuate the local elections in Ukraine which took place in October 2010. They were seen as a test for the new administration’s commitment to preserve the democratic achievements of the Orange Revolution, but turned out to be a big step back concerning the Ukrainian electoral process and legislation. The elections in 2012 are of high importance for Ukraine’s democracy. Political pluralism and fundamental democratic rights in Ukraine have been preserved for the last five years (2005 until beginning of 2010). The balance of power of the main political forces and thus the political pluralism were guaranteed mainly by fair and free elections, the protection of which was the main political achievement of the Orange forces – together with the freedom of mass media.
KP: Should the European Union use the association agreement, free-trade and visa-free regime negotiations as leverage to promote political and other reforms in Ukraine, or should these agreements be signed as soon as possible?
WJ: Conditionality to a certain degree already exists and probably will be strengthened in the future. Referring to the Arab Spring and the democratic movements in the Near East, the German Foreign Minister, Guido Westerwelle, recently declared that the EU should reconsider the principles and instruments of its neighborhood policies towards the partners in the south as well as in Eastern Europe. He had in mind creating a conditional link between institutional and financial support, on the one hand, and political reforms including preservation of fundamental democratic freedoms, on the other. Thus, further undermining of Ukraine’s democratization process could lead to a delay of the finalization of the DCFTA [Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement] negotiations.
KP: Could and should the current pro-Russian German position be replaced by a pro-Ukrainian position? To which degree may domestic political changes in Germany play a role for its future Eastern policy positions?
WJ: The German foreign policy has been characterized by a high continuity after the country’s reunification and has not been heavily influenced by domestic political changes. However, the current government stresses the close cooperation with Poland in European political affairs in general and towards the Eastern neighbors of EU in particular, which should have positive effects on Germany’s policy towards Ukraine.
KP: Do you have any specific advice for the Ukrainian government to change Ukraine’s image in Germany for the better, and improve Ukraine’s attractiveness for German investors?
WJ: The current Ukrainian state leadership should make more efforts to fully implement the rule of law in order to strengthen investors’ trust in Ukraine’s business conditions. With regard to the lack of rule of law, the recent trials and arrests of the former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and former Minister of Interior Yuri Lutsenko surely had a negative impact on the attitude of German investors towards Ukraine. The permanent changes and selective use of rules which seem to be politically motivated do not strengthen the investors’ trust in a country where powerful economic monopolists, on the one hand, and ruling political elites, on the other, are closely linked together.
KP: Did the decision to prosecute the former President Leonid Kuchma for the 2000 murder of journalist Georgiy Gongadze add credibility to the current government and improve its image in the West? What are your expectations about how this case should be solved?
WJ: Certainly, the case of Kuchma did not add credibility to the government in the West. Reforms of the courts and judiciary which strengthen their independence is the only way to add credibility to the government and its institutions. The recently decreasing power of the Supreme Court of Ukraine, which enjoyed a high reputation in Ukrainian society and which was usually seen as a protector of independence, is not a suitable signal to produce trust in Ukraine’s administration of justice.
KP: Do you think Ukraine will ever enter the EU, and, if so, under which conditions and when approximately?
WJ: Only successful common Ukrainian-European projects can Ukraine bring nearer to the EU-membership. With no doubt, the energy sector is one of the fields of mutual interest. The EU-Ukraine Joint Declaration on the modernization of Ukraine’s gas transit system signed in March 2009 was a first important step towards enhancing security of gas supplies and transit to Europe. The former Orange Ukrainian government declared its readiness to implement broad reforms supporting transparency and openness of Ukraine’s gas market as well as a modernization of its gas transit system. The EU was ready to provide the necessary financial support with the help of international financial institutions. However, the Orange leadership made no sufficient efforts to realize the reforms declared in Brussels. Although Ukraine joined the Energy Community in the fall of 2010, it still remains unclear whether the current Ukrainian government is ready to implement serious reforms in the spirit of the Joint Declaration. Actually, these reforms would stimulate the interest of the EU in Ukraine and enhance the energy independence and thus the sovereignty of the country.
Olena Tregub is a regular contributor to the Kyiv Post.
