You're reading: Ukraine’s economic growth to resume in 2010, unemployment to be high

Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2010 could be 3.5% with 11.8% inflation (December to December), according to calculations of 15 participants of a consensus forecast carried out under the aegis of the Ukrainian business magazine Expert.

According to a press release of the organizers of the study, the maximum and minimum assessments of analysts differ in GDP growth in the 0.5-5% range and that for inflation in the 9-20% range.

The press release says that in 2009 experts expect a 13.9% fall in GDP.

"Among the various economic sectors, the best pace [in 2010] is expected in industry and construction [6.8% growth], while production in the metals sector will grow by 10%, and in the engendering sector by 15%," reads the report.

The analysts of research institutes, banks and other financial institutions linked the revival in the Ukrainian economy with the recovery of the international economy: the surplus of the current account of the balance of payments is forecasted at 0.5%, and the forex reserves of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) will be around $25.2 billion (as of late 2010).

The average exchange rate is forecasted at Hr 8.2/$1: the range for forecasts of from Hr 7.7/$1 toHr 9.5/$1.

"The unemployment level will fall slowly. While in 2009 unemployment is expected at 10.5% among people aged from 15 to 70, in 2010 the indicator will fall to 9%, and among the working population to 8.6%. The real incomes of the population will grow by 2%," reads the release.

The deficit in public finances in 2010 is expected at 2.7-8.1% of GDP.

"The key source of covering the deficit is forecasted from domestic borrowing, and most analysts said that the foreign commercial loan market will open up," reads the report.