Fitch Ratings forecasts Ukraine's economy will grow by up to 5% this year, David Heslam, the director of the agency's sovereign ratings analysts group, said at the agency's annual conference in Kyiv.
Heslam said this was a fairly optimistic forecast: support from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other international financial organizations is a positive factor, but risks remain, including high foreign debt, capital outflow and dollarization, and a considerable requirement for public funding.
Fitch forecasts gross domestic product (GDP) in Ukraine could grow 4.5% in 2011. Heslam said the agency was expecting the economy to grow 4.5%-5% for several years to come.
Fitch said in a presentation that nominal GDP in Ukraine might be $140.9 billion in 2010 and $164.9 billion in 2011. Inflation could be 10% in 2010 and 10.8% in 2011, and the budget deficit could be 7% of GDP in 2010 and 3.5% in 2011.
The National Bank of Ukraine’s forex reserves will be $34.1 billion at the end of 2010 and $42 billion at the end of 2011, Fitch forecasts.
Exchange rate forecasts are Hr 7.84/$1 in 2010 and Hr 7.7/$1 in 2011 (Hr 7.9916/$1 on Oct. 28).
Ukraine could have a current account deficit of 0.9% of GDP in 2010 and 1.8% in 2011.
Public debt could be 27.8% of GDP in 2010 and 27.6% in 2011.
Total external debt could be 78% of GDP in 2010 and 74.5% in 2011.
