Experts project Ukraine's real GDP to fall 11.3 percent in 2009, according to consensus forecast

Experts project Ukraine's real GDP to fall 11.3 percent in 2009, according to consensus forecast

May 22 at 21:43 | Interfax-Ukraine
Ukrainian experts downgraded in May the forecast for the fall of Ukraine's real GDP in 2009 to 11.3%.

"In March we predicted a 9% fall in real GDP, in April we reviewed the forecast down to 10.2%, and in May changed it to 11.3%," says the monthly consensus forecast made by 16 finance and research organizations presented at a round table meeting organized by the Expert magazine.

The experts downgraded their April forecast for the fall in real consumption in 2009 from 11.9% to 13.4%, the fall in real investments from 20% to 21%.

According to the latest forecast, industrial production this year is to fall by 17.5% (down from 16.8% predicted in April). The experts downgraded the forecast for the budget deficit from 4.4% to 4.6%.

At the same time, the experts forecast that the deficit of the current account of payments in 2009 will reach 0.3% of GDP.

Consumer prices are to grow 17.7%, the manufacturers prices by 17.2%, the unemployment level by 11%.

The annual average hryvnia exchange rate is projected at UAH 8.4/$1.