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Experts project Ukraine's real GDP to fall 11.3 percent in 2009, according to consensus forecast
May 22 at 21:43 | Interfax-Ukraine"In March we predicted a 9% fall in real GDP, in April we reviewed the forecast down to 10.2%, and in May changed it to 11.3%," says the monthly consensus forecast made by 16 finance and research organizations presented at a round table meeting organized by the Expert magazine.
The experts downgraded their April forecast for the fall in real consumption in 2009 from 11.9% to 13.4%, the fall in real investments from 20% to 21%.
According to the latest forecast, industrial production this year is to fall by 17.5% (down from 16.8% predicted in April). The experts downgraded the forecast for the budget deficit from 4.4% to 4.6%.
At the same time, the experts forecast that the deficit of the current account of payments in 2009 will reach 0.3% of GDP.
Consumer prices are to grow 17.7%, the manufacturers prices by 17.2%, the unemployment level by 11%.
The annual average hryvnia exchange rate is projected at UAH 8.4/$1.