Ukraine's relations with the EU will directly depend on a sentence the court will hand down to ex-Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, Volodymyr Fesenko, the board chairman of the Ukrainian Applied Political Research Center 'Penta', said.
"If the opinion that not only should Tymoshenko be arrested but should also be left behind bars and be given a long prison sentence prevails among the country leadership, this could lead to a serious crisis in relations with the West and seriously complicate or even disrupt the signing of a new basic agreement with the EU or its ratification. And if the West puts the president in some informal diplomatic isolation, this could turn Kyiv away from Brussels toward Moscow, and we could receive Customs Union membership instead of a free trade zone with the EU," Fesenko said in an interview with Interfax-Ukraine.
Tymoshenko’s arrest is fraught more with political rather than foreign economic risks for Ukraine, he said.
"Certainly, we can see from the immediate reaction that foreign political risks are the most serious ones. I would talk less about foreign economic risks. To the IMF, specifics of relations between the government and the opposition are not criteria in making decisions. What is important to them is that there should be a stable government and a balanced economic policy and that agreements with the IMF be honored. Of course, if there is a crisis in the country, no money will be given," he said.
Fesenko also suggested a different scenario. "After a sentence is handed down to Tymoshenko, she could be pardoned and set free, which would gradually alleviate tensions, and there will be some normalization of the political situation. Sure, some unpleasant aftertaste will remain, but anyway this won’t lead to a serious crisis in relations with the West and the EU, and so this will minimize foreign political and foreign economic risks," he said.
Mykhailo Pohrebynsky, the director of the Kyiv Political Research and Conflictology Center, believes Tymoshenko’s arrest during her trial will not affect Ukraine’s plans to sign an association agreement with the EU and Ukrainian-Russian cooperation.
"I do not think that this arrest could significantly affect the foreign political ties and our plans on an association agreement with the EU or some agreements with Moscow. I consider this unlikely. And the opinions that Ukraine is becoming like Belarus now or that Ukraine will be isolated look like premature panic forecasts to me," he said.
"Surely, the situation has become tense. But I would not make far-reaching conclusions about what will happen to our relations with Europe or Russia. For instance, Yanukovych plans to meet with [Russian President Dmitry] Medvedev on Thursday, and this meeting could have some continuation. Despite the Russian Foreign Ministry’s harsh statement on the Tymoshenko arrest, this meeting has not been canceled," he said.
"The Western partners have a strong interest to keep Ukraine within the EU field of attraction," he said.
"This is what will motivate their decisions stronger than the Tymoshenko trial. Europe’s response to Tymoshenko’s arrest was well predictable, but I don’t think the train is gone," he said.
