For the foreseeable future, Germany is the European Union country that Ukraine may need to pay most attention to. It is the economic powerhouse of Europe and, significantly for Ukraine as a nation that seeks closer relations with the EU, Germany has maintained a strong interest in political and economic cooperation with the nation since the Soviet Union’s demise.
Germany is currently the second largest investor and trading partner of Ukraine and the only Western European nation that the Ukrainian government has designated as a strategic partner.Yet Germany does not belong to the so-called “group of friends of Ukraine,” led by Poland, which have lobbied hard for Ukraine’s integration with the European Union.
Experts say Germany’s ‘Russia-first’ policy not likely to change.
To the contrary, Germany strongly opposed a NATO membership action plan for Ukraine at the 2008 Bucharest summit, leading some to conclude that Germans are ready to sacrifice Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations on the altar of good relations with Russia.
The Kyiv Post surveyed German lawyers, political analysts, journalists, politicians, and economists with across-the-party-line affiliations who are active in shaping foreign policy with Ukraine. Fuller versions of all 16 interviews are online at www.kyivpost.com.
Most experts interviewed see a dramatic shift away from political pluralism since President Viktor Yanukovych took over from President Viktor Yushchenko in 2010.
“Yanukovych gained control of practically all branches of power,” said Otto Luchterhandt, professor of legal studies at the University of Hamburg. While improving the outward stability and governability of Ukraine, Andreas Wittkowsky of the Center for International Peace Cooperation in Berlin said the authoritarian leanings of the ruling elite are trumping responsive and inclusive leadership.
German experts recited a familiar litany: the constitutionally dubious way the presidential majority in parliament was formed, changes to the constitution itself, controversial appointments to key posts, flawed local elections in 2010, criminal prosecutions of the political opposition, pressure on media, disregard for political rights of citizens and the judiciary’s loss of independence.
“While political pluralism decreased, polarization in the society increased,” notes Stefan Meister from Robert Bosch Stiftung in Berlin.
Many experts see the reason for the failure of democratic, including economic and social, changes in Ukraine as the pro-presidential Party of Regions’ lack of interest in the public good.
“The so-called reforms are benefiting the special interest groups, the oligarchs, their supporters, those people close to Yanukovych,” said Susan Stewart, a researcher at the Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin. “Today’s leaders are running the country into the ground with the current approach.”
Most experts believe that the Yanukovych administration is genuinely interested in EU integration. However, as Nina Jeglinski, a Ukraine correspondent for major German news agency German Press Agency points out, the new government is really after European money, not European values.
This is why most experts believe that the EU should use the association, free-trade agreement and visa-free regime negotiations to press Ukraine for reforms and adherence to democratic standards. The EU does face a serious dilemma of how hard to push Ukraine, however.
“If the EU tries to use these negotiations as leverage to compel the Yanukovych regime into respecting democratic principles, it drives Ukraine into the open arms of Moscow,” said Winfried Schneider-Deters, an analyst at the Friedrich Ebert Foundation.
“If, on the other hand, the EU does not insist on the respect for these principles, it compromises its fundamental ‘European’ values,” sending the wrong signal to Russia and other post-Soviet states.
Another issue is at stake. Whatever distaste Germans and others have for the government, agreements that benefit 46 million ordinary Ukrainians – such as visa-free travel – may be well worth the trouble – and accelerate democratic changes within Ukraine.
Some, like Viola von Cramon, a member of the Bundestag from the Green Party, is, strongly in favor of concluding a visa-free regime that would make Ukrainians feel welcome in Europe and strengthen their European identity and, by extension, their leaning towards the West.
Andreas Stein, the editor of Ukraine Nachrichten, said “the enhanced experiences with the living standards in the European Union would raise pressure on the Ukrainian government to change the living conditions of the Ukrainian population.”
But with as many as six million Ukrainians living abroad – some of them illegally – it is doubtful that the EU is ready to make travel visa-free for Ukrainians. In fact, most think that Ukraine is not fit for the EU for numerous reasons – and may not be for another 25 years, and then only if takes the right economic and political steps. If true, the continuing estrangement would hurt Ukraine’s development, as many see the nation in danger of becoming even more subservient to Russia.
Germany’s current “Russia-first” policy, dictated by strong economic interests, is not likely to change, experts say.
Von Cramon, a Green member of parliament, hopes that foreign policy will change so that “our bilateral relations with Ukraine are seen as a policy strategy of its own.”
Andreas Umland, a German lecturer at Kyiv Mohyla Academy, said that skepticism of Yanukovych is holding back growth in German foreign investment. Most experts talk about weak rule of law, a lack of a reliable legal system and the lack of an independent judiciary as the main obstacles.
Suspicions are high that criminal charges against ex-President Leonid Kuchma involving the 2000 murder of Georgiy Gongadze are more opportunistic than any real attempt at justice. Moreover, the current trial of ex-Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko on abuse-of-office charges is simply seen as an attempt by the administration to sideline the president’s top rival.
Stein said the Aug. 5 arrest of Tymoshenko, charged with illegally reaching a 2009 natural gas agreement with Russia, is designed to force the Kremlin into reopening the negotiations over the gas import price. Ukraine could pay up to $400 per 1,000 cubic square meters for imported Russian gas by year’s end, while Yanukovych has reportedly said the price should be closer to $200,000 per 1,000 cubic square meters.
For Yanukovych, The Tymoshenko trial is also the test how Russia and Europe will react. In that case, the German response is likely to be muted because many do not see Tymoshenko as a genuine fighter for democracy.
A more likely test of EU policy toward Yanukovych will come during the 2012 parliamentary elections in Ukraine. If the vote is seen as unfair or undemocratic, the West will likely downgrade its relationship with a Yanukovych-run Ukraine.
Olena Tregub is a freelance journalist based in Washington, D.C.
