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Analysts say Georgia is more likely to withdraw from the CIS than Ukraine, which is more economically and culturally tied to Russia

oward withdrawal from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), a move that could revamp the geopolitical balance in the region, further reducing the grip of the Kremlin on former Soviet republics.

Ukraine, along with Russia and Belarus, is recognized as one of the founding creators of the CIS, established following the breakup of the Soviet Union. But Kyiv has claimed that it never actually became a full-fledged member.

Ukraine has kept its distance from the CIS and the Moscow-supported Single Economic Space, calling for the lifting of economic barriers with Russia, while opposing tighter integration, such as calls by the Kremlin for a unified customs zone.

Recent moves by Moscow to impose trade restrictions on meat and milk from Ukraine, wine from Moldova and Georgia, and most recently a ban on Georgian mineral water have intensified differences within the CIS between Moscow and states that support closer integration with the West. The trade restrictions have been viewed as retaliation by Moscow toward post-Soviet republics that have actively pursued membership in NATO and the EU following the election of pro-Western leaders.

Rising tensions escalated last week, when Georgian officials threatened a withdrawal from the CIS. Kostyantyn Tymoshenko, Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko’s foreign policy advisor, said May 5 that Ukraine could do likewise.

"If there aren't going to be results, this question will arise, if not tomorrow, then in the nearest future," Tymoshenko said.

Deputy Foreign Minister Volodymyr Ohryzko said later that day that Ukraine could find better ways to spend the nearly $1 million in funds that it provides to the budget for the CIS.

“Ukraine is a member of many other international organizations, where such contributions are a little less, but the return from them is significantly higher,” Ohryzko said.

Ohryzko said, however, that a detailed analysis was needed to decide if leaving the CIS is a good choice for Ukraine.

Russian officials responded with a warning that Ukraine and Georgia would face new problems should they follow through with plans to exit the CIS. Meanwhile, the Moscow-supported leaders of the breakaway Georgian region of Abkhazia have expressed their intention to join the CIS.

An advisor to one top Ukrainian official told the Post that a withdrawal could be a logical move, considering the ineffectiveness of the CIS and the recent “trade war” moves by Moscow to limit imports from Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine.

Political analyst Mykhailo Pohrebinsky described Ukraine’s threat to exit the CIS as a “provocative move by Ukraine’s propaganda machine” intended to win political points against Russian on the geopolitical arena. He doubts, however, the possibility that Ukrainian’s parliament will muster the majority of votes required to approve such a move, adding that most political blocs and business-oriented deputies would not support legislation fueling worse ties with Russia, even though they may support Western integration.

“The goal of this operation is to demonstrate to the United States of America that Ukraine’s leadership is absolutely ready to enter NATO and work closer with the U.S., but the country needs more help, as its northern neighbor is a continuing threat,” Pohrebinsky said, admitting, however, that the CIS has failed to develop into an effective organization.

On May 10, Russian President Vladimir Putin admitted that the CIS was suffering from a “difficult search for an optimal model,” adding that Russia views the inter-state structure as a method for integrating the economies of member countries in order to spread efficiency and cooperation.

Pohrebinsky said that “nobody is happy with the development of the CIS.”

“You can blame all sides involved. Ukraine always saw the CIS as a mechanism of gradually reducing tight ties inherited from Soviet days” while Russia saw it as an instrument to preserve economic relations and its influence in the region.

Andriy Okara, a Moscow-based political analyst with Ukrainian roots, who closely follows events in his historical homeland, agrees.

Okara said Ukraine could use its threat to withdraw from the CIS as a political card against the Kremlin, but it is unlikely to follow through soon on such a threat, as the consequences would prove detrimental to Ukraine’s economy and political leadership.

Withdrawal from the CIS of Ukraine, Georgia and other former Soviet republics that have strained ties with the Kremlin lately is “possible, in theory” though likely only in the case of Georgia, Okara said.

While Moldova has not yet expressed its intention to exit the CIS, its relations with Moscow have been tense, largely due to the Kremlin’s support of the ruling regime in the separatist Transdniester region.

“In practical terms it’s more likely that only Georgia would leave, not Ukraine and Moldova,” Okara said.

“Georgia’s economic infrastructure is much less intertwined with Russia and other CIS members. Georgia and Russia have had very intense relations recently, mainly because of the separatist state of Abkhazia. In Ukraine and Moldova, problems with Moscow are not as deep, and their economic and cultural ties with Moscow are much stronger.”

Okara also warned that Ukraine’s threats to withdraw from the CIS could prove to be a political blunder for President Viktor Yushchenko, who has already seen his political clout in Ukraine shrink following a poor showing of his political party in the March 26 parliamentary elections.

Yushchenko might support stronger integration with Western organizations such as the European Union, WTO and NATO, but specific developments on this front are not likely to materialize in the near future, Okara said, adding that Yushchenko will be seeking improved relations and allies on all fronts in the near term.

“The trust of the population to Yushchenko is sharply falling in connection with many factors, but realistic positive accomplishments are minimal. It’s difficult for him to show what positive things his administration has achieved in the past year and a half,” Okara said.

“At the moment, the CIS is not an alternative to NATO, a military alliance. The CIS is supposed to be more of a confederate union of states that have common goals and interests. In reality, it’s a form of divorce of post Soviet Republics …this is cynical but there is truth to this.”

“Regardless, Yushchenko’s support could drop further if he directs Ukraine out of the CIS into a more confrontational position towards former Soviet republics, as most Ukrainians oppose NATO integration.”

“Ukraine is not a full member of the CIS and does not get a lot from it today, but leaving the CIS could serve to fuel a negative backlash,” he warned.The CIS includes all of the Soviet Union’s former republics, except the three Baltic States. Ukraine’s parliament, however, has never ratified the 1994 CIS Charter, leading some Ukrainian leaders to refer to the country’s membership as ‘associate’, although the Charter makes no provision for associate status. Turkmenistan followed suit in 2005, when it also declared itself an associate member.