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The An-70 military transport plane, like the one pictured above, is under threat of losing Russia as a partner to serially produce the aircraft Courtesy photo The long-running saga surrounding an ambitious Ukrainian-Russian aviation project has taken a new twist, with senior Russian military officials again threatening to pull out of the deal

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Industry insiders, however, insist that the An-70 military transport plane has a future, as work on the aircraft creeps forward.

The commander-in-chief of Russia’s armed forces, Vladimir Mikhaylov, announced Aug. 18 that Russia would be withdrawing from the project to design and serial produce the mid-sized cargo plane, which has been under development since 1993, when an inter-governmental agreement was signed between Ukraine and Russia.

Mikhaylov said that Russia’s withdrawal was the decision of Russian Defense Minister Sergey Ivanov.

However, sources at the Kyiv-based Antonov aircraft construction plant, which is the main partner in the project representing Ukraine, see no reason for Russia to withdraw. Antonov officials cite the continuing work by both sides to eliminate minor drawbacks raised by Mikhaylov, claiming that the program for joint testing of the aircraft is 80 percent compete.

Withdrawal would mean a loss of jobs in Ukraine and Russia, according to Oleksandr Kiva, deputy general designer at the Antonov plant.

“Many Russian enterprises are involved in this project,” he told the Post, “therefore, given the further development of the project, Russia will get jobs for thousands of its specialists.”

Kiva said that despite repeated threats by the Russian Defense Ministry to end its participation in the An-70 deal with Ukraine, there has been no official withdrawal from Moscow yet.

“According to the agreement, any party wanting to leave the project must give official notice of half a year, after which it has to proceed with funding the project for the half year. It must also pay off all debts and fines owed,” said Kiva. “Russia has done none of this as yet.”

Orders for the An-70 are supposed to come from the defense ministries of Russia and Ukraine, which are expected to buy 164 and 65 of the planes, respectively.

“Of course, Russia’s withdrawal would not have a positive effect on the project,” Kiva said, adding that apart from the fact that Russia was supposed to be the main buyer of the aircraft, cancellation of the agreement would spoil the image of the An-70 on the international market.

At the same time, some military experts view Russia’s withdrawal as motivated by market economics, meaning there are concerns as to whether the plane has a market outside Ukraine and Russia.

Valentin Badrak, the head of the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Research, a Kyiv-based think tank, said the joint venture first came under fire in 2000, when during the prestigious ILA-2000 International Aerospace exhibition in Berlin, Germany, announced it would not take part in the An-70 project.

According to Badrak, Russia took this as a sign that Europe viewed the An-70 as having little promise, and started “quietly sabotaging” the project.

Badrak said that among other things Russia was reluctant to provide its part of the financing for the airplane. As a result, the Russian side currently owes Ukraine over $50 million for the project.

“As for occasional statements by politicians in Moscow that Russia and Ukraine are resuming work on the project, such allegations had been only made to delay the start of serial production of the An-70,” Badrak said.

As a result, according to Badrak, Russia has managed to delay the program up to the point where the An-70 could find itself outdated and not in demand on international markets.

“According to our analysis, if serial production of the An-70 does not begin within the next two years, the project will be labeled as one without any prospects”, said the expert.

He added that whilst undermining cooperation with Ukraine, Russia has been actively developing its own medium range military transport plane, the IL-76MF, as an alternative to the An-70.

Badrak additionally cited European competition, the A400M military transport aircraft, as another reason for Ukraine to be worried about demand for the An-70 in the future.

However, according to Kiva, the An-70 is still in the vanguard of its class of airplanes, since it has the edge over both the Russian IL-76MF and the European A400M in a series of parameters. For example, it has a larger cargo compartment and is more fuel efficient.

Moreover, said Kiva, both the Russian and European airplanes are currently only in their development phase.

“The An-70 has no equals,” said Kiva. “Once this airplane is accepted by the military, it will bring the maneuverability of troops to a completely new level.”

Valeriy Chaly, director for international programs with the Razumkov center, a Kyiv-based think tank, does not agree totally with the view that the An-70 project is being undermined merely for market competition reasons.

“This project has been more of a political than economical one. It used to be more of a symbol of friendly relations between Ukraine and Russia, despite the fact that in the beginning it had also been economically promising,” he said.

According to Chaly, Moscow has always had people lobbying the promotion of Russian airplanes that compete with Ukrainian ones. At the same time, the friendlier relations that used to be enjoyed between the two countries gave the An-70 project more publicity.

“But with time, and under the new political conditions, people started calling a spade a spade,” said the Razumkov expert, referring to the withdrawal announcements made by Russian military officials.

“It had been more of a PR project”, said Chaly, adding that there are other successful and interesting aviation projects currently being carried out by Russia and Ukraine which are less known to the general public than the An-70 simply because these projects do not have any political implications.

Speaking about the prospects of the An-70, experts say that Ukraine should pin its hopes on Asian markets.

Antonov’s Kiva named China, India and Iran among the countries most interested in buying the An-70. He also said that the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and Finland have been conducting negotiations with Ukraine on future purchases of the airplane.

Chaly said that the An-70 project will only be successful if Ukraine manages to independently (i.e. without Russia’s help) promote the airplane in Asia and other markets.

Badrak, of Defense Express, said that to save the An-70, the Ukrainian government should put all efforts into financing the start of the airplane’s serial production, which was supposed to be launched in 2006.

He added that Ukraine not only needs to improve sales, but change the whole structure of its aircraft business. In particular, he said Ukraine should stop viewing Russia as its major aviation market, since now Russia is more of an obstacle and a competitor for Ukraine, than a customer. According to Ukrainian legislation, no international promotion of the An-70, nor any other military hardware, is permitted if it has not first been added to the arsenal of the country’s armed forces.