There is a 90 percent chance that early parliamentary elections will take place on Sept. 30, but organizational threats remain

Voters of Ukraine (CVU) said in a monitoring report, issued July 19, with the most recent public opinion polls showing a voter turnout of around 70 percent.

Formally, the election campaign is expected to begin Aug. 2.

According to the polls, the majority of voters are most concerned with the economy and less with foreign policy issues.

The CVU, an election watchdog, voiced “significant concern” that violations could occur in political advertising and during actual voting. However, the CVU said that it is “most concerned” about violations during the “process of summing up election results.”


Political competition, legal landmines

“The greatest risk to honest and democratic elections is the high level of political competition, which has affected governmental bodies, the Central Election Commission (CEC) and the courts,” reads the CVU’s five-page report. The NGO said that a large number of court cases will likely be filed throughout the campaign, with most of the legal challenges coming as results are being tallied and coalition talks begin.

“The greatest organizational threats to the elections are imperfect and contradictory legislation and the voter list preparation process. The CVU warned that the quality of the voter lists will be very low because the law on the state registry of voters is not being implemented. It is unrealistic to expect a complete voter registry by Sept. 30, the CVU said. The election watchdog recommended forgetting about the voter registry for now and producing corrected voter lists based on those from the March 2006 elections.


Campaigns afoot

“All of the major political forces have started their campaigns, with advertising on television, radio and outdoors. The CVU expresses its concern about the lack of transparency in advertising agreements and the possible inequality of opportunities for different parties and candidates,” the CVU said.

The CVU characterized President Viktor Yushchenko’s television commercial, in which he explains why he disbanded parliament and called new elections as “hidden political advertising.”

The national broadcasting council classified the commercial as “social advertising,” which allowed it to be aired for free. Other political forces have to pay commercial prices for advertising. The Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych-led Party of Regions complained about what it characterized as unfair treatment in a letter to the CVU earlier this month.

The NGO also said that a large number of civil servants would take part in the elections as candidates or campaign workers, which could result in the abuse of their positions. The CVU said that it was concerned that “many heads of state administrations have become heads of local campaign offices for Our Ukraine-People’s Self-Defense (OUPSD). The CVU calls upon them to take a vacation during the elections and not use their offices to influence the elections.”

The CVU found that the campaign offices of the oppositionist Byut bloc, which is led by former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, are the “most widely formed.” The other parties are in the process of organizing their networks. The CVU reported that most campaigns are busy recruiting personnel to work in election commissions and more than 30,000 polling stations.

The CVU also voiced concern over the excessive politicization of the CEC, which may result in the disruption of election preparations; already CEC members from Our Ukraine and Byut have a difference of opinion concerning how 225 district election commissions will be formed.

The CVU report also said that as many as 5 million Ukrainians traveling or residing abroad at the time of the elections would be deprived of their right to vote in connections of electoral law requirements adopted for the 2006 elections.


Disagreement on parliament dissolution

Although Ukrainians are divided on the issue of early elections, the majority plan to show up to polling stations on election day. Only 43 percent fully supported the measure to disband parliament and hold early elections. Nearly the same number – 41 percent – did not approve of the presidential measure. Nevertheless, nearly half of Ukrainians said they would show up at the polls, while another 27 percent said that they would “most likely” show up. Nearly 50 percent said they would go to the polls because the felt it to be their civic duty.

Voter turnout is important because for the first time since independence, a minimum voter turnout barrier of 50 percent has been established.

Among those who disapprove of early elections, more that 27 percent said that disbanding parliament was illegal. Among supporters of the measure, another 27 percent said the parliament was dysfunctional.

The poll, conducted by the Democratic Initiatives Foundation and Ukrainian Sociology Service earlier this month also found that 42 percent of Ukrainians would vote for the same party or bloc they supported in the March 26 elections.


Coalition plans up front

Voters want to know who will be prime minister and ministers in the future government before, not after, the elections. They also want to know about parties’ post-election coalition plans before they cast their electoral bulletin into the ballot box.

Respondents were asked about what information from the parties would determine their choices. From a list of 10 possible messages, three-quarters said they would like to know who the party would nominate for prime minister. More than 70 percent said they would like to know who the party would put forth for ministerial posts in the future government. Two-thirds said they would like to know about parties’ post-election alliance plans in parliament.


Issues of importance

The poll also presented a list of 35 issues ranging from combating poverty to NATO membership. Respondents were asked to choose the most important issues they would like to see addressed in the political programs of the various parties and bloc.

The top 10 most important issues pertain to domestic policy; foreign policy concerns like possible membership in the Common Economic Space with Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan or the EU were deemed important in less that 10 percent of responses.

Instead, half of the nation’s voters want to hear how parties would ensure economic growth, raise wages and end unemployment. Ukrainians expect better medical services and would like to see the government take care of society’s needy. Voters also want to know how parties propose to end crime and corruption.

Issues concerning democracy, freedom of speech and human rights were important for less than 10 percent of respondents. More than 18 percent are concerned with the environment, while less than 13 percent feel that granting the Russian language official status is an issue of the utmost importance.


Constitutional opinions

The polls also gauged respondents’ opinions on two issues that would require changes to the country’s Constitution. Both issues are considered potential referendum questions on plebiscites being promoted by Byut and Our Ukraine.

The vast majority of respondents – 80 percent – support canceling immunity from prosecution for parliament members.

More than three-quarters support direct presidential elections, while only 4 percent are willing to cede that right to parliament. Ten percent said that the post of president was unnecessary in Ukraine.

The Communists have repeatedly called for the abolition of the presidency, while politicians from the governing coalition have voiced plans to complete the transition to a fully “parliamentary republic” by granting the legislature the right to appoint a president.