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Ukraine’s pro-Western President Viktor Yushchenko and his influential chief of staff, Viktor Baloha, speak privately during coalition negotiations held in the presidential building last month. Courtesy photo Should a new government emerge from the dragging coalition talks, political observers are increasingly convinced it will be a messy compromise

a messy compromise.

Gaining steam is the notion that no new government will be formed, a theory circulated by political insider Volodymyr Fesenko, who has extensive experience working with major political players, including the Presidential Secretariat.

“I am reminded of Trotsky’s famous phrase, ‘No peace, no war, and dismiss the army,’” Mr. Fesenko told a Nov. 9 round table on political strategy.

“The matter hasn’t reached the point of dismissing the army. But to paraphrase regarding the Verkhovna Rada’s possible work, it would be, ‘No coalition, no opposition and no dismissing the Verkhovna Rada.’”

As President Viktor Yushchenko and his influential Secretariat chair, Viktor Baloha attempt to appease the nation’s three major political forces, they are considering as a quick fix the so-called “no coalition” scenario, which involves Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych and his Cabinet of Ministers remaining in place as an acting government, analysts said.

The situation of no coalition emerging, or possibly a de jure Orange coalition under a de facto Yanukovych government, is gaining plausibility because it provides an exit out of the current zero-sum game that is intolerable to the three major political forces.

“I don’t exclude this situation, which benefits all the politicians involved,” said Svitlana Kononchuk, director of political programs at the Kyiv-based Ukrainian Center for Independent Political Research, partly financed by the National Endowment for Democracy.

The Ukrainian Constitution requires the first parliamentary session to occur within 30 days of official publication of election results (Oct. 27), and the formation of a coalition government within another 30 days.

Playing the role of kingmaker, Yushchenko and the pro-presidential Our Ukraine-People’s Self-Defense Bloc is in position to form a coalition with either Yanukovych’s Regions Party or the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc.

Though the president’s ideal outcome would involve bringing all of Ukraine’s biggest forces into a single wide coalition, the Tymoshenko Bloc refuses to enter into a coalition with the Regions because it would undermine Tymoshenko’s key image as a crusader for justice against the corrupt mafia she has repeatedly cast them to be.

Forming either coalition poses significant consequences for Yushchenko and his loyal Our Ukraine-People’s Self-Defense grouping, analysts said.

The Regions has engaged in delaying tactics for the past two weeks as part of an effort to do everything possible to prevent formation of the so-called Democratic Forces Coalition, Fesenko said.

“Demonstrating their blocking ability, the Party of Regions is showing that not a single political or staffing decision will be passed in parliament without its consensus and its political will,” he said.

“What they’re saying is, ‘You must negotiate with us.’”

Through its conduct so far and repeated threats, the Party of Regions made clear it will be hostile to an Orange coalition, which would have a razor-thin majority in parliament.

Aside from waiting until the last minute to accept its deputy mandates and participating in the working group, Regions’ leaders suggested they would resort to more extreme measures as formation of an Orange coalition draws closer, including blocking the parliamentary tribune or surrendering their mandates in an effort to disband parliament.

“It’s psychological pressure on the president and unstable elements of Our Ukraine-People’s Self-Defense and the Tymoshenko Bloc,” Fesenko said.

However, uniting Our Ukraine-People’s Self-Defense with the Regions will decimate any miniscule chances Yushchenko currently has of getting re-elected as president, said Viktor Chumak, director of political analysis programs at the Kyiv-based International Center for Prospective Research.

“The president can’t deny Tymoshenko the premiership,” he said.

“It enhances her position even further, and they will accuse him of destructiveness in forming the Democratic Forces Coalition.”

It will also decimate the Our Ukraine grouping, a significant portion of which will oppose a coalition with the Regions, Chumak said.

Hence, Yushchenko’s possible exit out of a no-win situation is Fesenko’s “no coalition” scenario, in which no coalition is formed by the 60-day deadline after parliamentary elections.

The Ukrainian Constitution requires that the president dismiss parliament in such an event, but it also contains a clause forbidding pre-term elections within a year of the prior pre-term elections, Fesenko said.

“That’s a collision within the Constitution’s context, and the president will face the issue of whether to dismiss parliament or not,” he said.

As such, the president could take advantage of such conflicting laws and create a political stalemate, in which the Yanukovych government would remain acting, a politically expedient outcome for all the main players, albeit legally questionable.

“Our legal nihilism is well developed,” Kononchuk said. “If there’s a high interest in something being overlooked or overstepped, it can be done.”

Even if a Democratic Forces Coalition emerges de jure, political analysts are almost unanimous in the view that Tymoshenko is unlikely to get the necessary votes to become prime minister.

Only three votes are needed to subvert her premiership. And Our Ukraine-People’s Self-Defense has demonstrated a significant minority within its ranks do not want to work with Tymoshenko, herself a presidential contender, largely because they’ve burned the bridges or aren’t needed by her, said political insider Ivan Lozowy.

The recent refusals by three Our Ukraine-People’s Self-Defense politicians to sign the coalition agreement were clearly coordinated by Baloha, according to Lozowy. This reveals the president’s lack of interest in working with Tymoshenko, he added.

“Even though Yushchenko has stated what he wants, he’s not willing to go after it and do whatever it takes, which is the ultimate condemnation of the power he has as president and his persistent failure,” he said.

In an Orange coalition, the Tymoshenko Bloc won’t settle for any prime minister candidate other than its eponymous leader, Kononchuk said, in which case her rejection provides for another scenario in which Yanukovych would remain in place as acting prime minister. Nevertheless, Tymoshenko stands to gain even if the Democratic Forces Coalition fails to support her prime minister candidacy.

“She will take advantage of the situation to cast her opponents as betrayers who don’t uphold agreements, and further her consistent image of defending the people’s interests,” Kononchuk said.

Meanwhile, the Regions will benefit because it would continue controlling the executive branch and Ukraine’s vast resources, she added.

Political observers agree that a “no coalition stalemate” is an effective short-term solution, but it can’t last very long.

The president will have to lobby, negotiate, trade and jockey for every legislative initiative he would need passed, rather than relying on a stable coalition, Kononchuk said.

Package votes are the likely outcome, she said, as different laws from different spheres will be packaged to satisfy different groups.

The political stalemate could satisfy interests for only several months, Lozowy said.

“I don’t see how a non-functioning parliament and acting prime minister can continue for a long period of time, more than two or three months,” he said. “Parliament has to gather in session every 30 days, and nobody will get many votes through.”

A “no coalition” outcome would be the peak of unaccountability in Ukrainian governance, Kononchuk said.

Furthermore, Western governments and corporations intent on political stability will only be further disappointed, she said.

In the long term, it’s the Ukrainian nation and its people that suffer from the current political deadlock, lack of unaccountability and disrespect for the rule of law, Kononchuk said.

“Politicians created a system in which a small circle of politicians divide power among each other and a system of political unaccountability thrives,” she said.

“They are unaccountable to the people and the image of Ukraine as a country because they are blinded by the latest political struggle.