Ukraine is once again saddled with its historical role as buffer between Russia and the West – and once more sending out mixed messages to both sides

kraine is once again saddled with its historical role as buffer between Russia and the West – and once more sending out conflicting messages to both sides.

With a buildup of Western and Russian naval vessels in the Black Sea south of Ukraine, tensions escalated further after Moscow snubbed the West on Aug. 27 and recognized the independence of Georgia’s two breakaway enclaves, Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Some experts say Russia’s latest move signals a new world order, one which raises the question of how far Ukraine’s northern neighbor is willing to go to pursue its interests. Some wonder whether Ukraine, the other rare ex­Soviet Western ally besides Georgia, could be Moscow’s next target.

Yet another question is whether Russia’s show of domination has sidelined the West’s attempts at encouraging democracy and energy diversification in the region, where Ukraine and Georgia are seen as key transit countries in bypassing Russia’s grip over oil and gas supplies.

As Russia challenged Western interests, Ukraine’s leadership remained as divided as ever. The Moscow­leaning opposition leader, Victor Yanukovych, embraced Russia’s recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. But President Victor Yushchenko, in a letter published by the Washington Post, warned his country was becoming “a hostage to the war waged by Russia.”

The president’s administration has waged war in the domestic political arena, accusing Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko of wavering in the Georgia conflict, supposedly to win Kremlin support for her presumed candidacy in the 2010 presidential election.

The public’s opinion was a mirror image of these divisions. A poll commissioned by the Segodnya newspaper and carried out by the Research & Branding Group Aug. 14-­18 showed that the public is equally divided between supporting Russia, sympathizing with Georgia, or abstaining from supporting any side.

Geoffrey Smith, a strategist with Renaissance Capital, said Russia’s recent moves in Georgia pose no direct risk to Ukraine’s territorial integrity, but could affect sentiment toward Ukrainian financial markets. The nation borders the home of another frozen conflict, namely the Moldovan breakaway region of Transdniester. Ukraine also fears Russia could challenge its sovereignty over the Crimean Peninsula.

“Russia is not content with the current status quo,” Smith said, a reference to Medvedev’s recognition of the two breakaway Georgian enclaves that neither of his predecessors had recognized.

“There are other frozen conflicts. Things could get very awkward,” Smith said. He doubts whether Crimea will return to Russia’s grip, citing the peninsula’s autonomous status under the Ukrainian constitution, and lack of official support from Moscow – so far – for a revision of the 1954 agreement transferring Crimea to the Ukrainian SSR.

Faced with such uncertainty, Smith said Ukraine’s politicians “need to keep their cool, avoid making public outbursts” which could provoke a serious standoff with Russia or Russians living in Ukraine.

However, should Crimea’s “status” change, Smith said: “it would pose a far greater risk to European peace than the Georgian conflict.”

In an interview with Reuters published on Aug. 27, President Yushchenko echoed the fears of many analysts and those of his compatriots saying: “Any nation could be next, any country. When we allow someone to ignore the fundamental right of territorial integrity, we put into doubt the existence of any country.” Indeed, Ukraine is wary, since 10 NATO warships are in the Black Sea with eight more expected soon.

A recently published EU think tank report said the 27-­member bloc cannot afford any more delays in defining and deepening ties with Ukraine. The European Council on Foreign Relations proposed that Ukraine be given access to the EU’s four freedoms of movement of goods, people, services and capital and a roadmap for visa­free travel. The report also advocates that Ukraine be offered a “clearer perspective” towards a NATO membership action plan.