Migrant workers may be first to lose jobs abroad as economic woes spread

WASHINGTON, D.C. As Russia’s economy slows, Ukrainian guest workers – who may number two million in that nation alone – will be among the first to lose their jobs. Many could end up returning home.

That is the assessment of experts who spoke at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington, D.C., on Nov. 13. The Center’s Kennan Institute studies migration issues in Ukraine and other former Soviet republics.

Russia’s construction industry – booming until recently – is expected to be among the hardest-hit sectors, with a 20 percent decline forecast for next year. Russia’s economic fortunes rise and fall with the export price of oil, which has tumbled to $55 a barrel recently from highs that approached $150 per barrel.

Charles Ryan, chairman of Deutsche Bank in Russia, said commercial real estate will suffer the most, likely sending businesses into bankruptcy. “I wouldn’t say that Ukrainians and Tajiks will be sent home. They will just be fired,” he predicted.


Many of the Ukrainian workers will be dismissed without any rights for compensation or warnings, Ryan said, because most of them work in the country illegally.

Russia suffered from a severe labor shortage for years, caused by an increasing demographic problem. Many Ukrainians took advantage of the situation and moved to Russia for temporary residence and better-paid work. Those prospects have dried up, Ryan said.

Russia’s troubles, however, may have a silver lining for Ukraine, Ryan said. With the Kremlin occupied with its domestic crisis, he thinks that Russian politicians will spend less time meddling in Crimea. Ukraine’s pro-Russian autonomous republic, which hosts the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, has been the flashpoint of conflict for years between the two nations. Russian politicians, including Moscow mayor Yuriy Luzhkov, have suggested that Crimea should be reclaimed by Russia.

Such conflicts will move down the priority list, Ryan predicted. “The financial crisis is the number one issue. Georgia is not so important anymore after the crisis,” he said.