You're reading: Swine flu outbreak heats up presidential election fever

Presidential contenders are trying to outcompete each other using the epidemic for self-promotion and condemnation of the opponents.

In the dead of night on Nov. 2, three top Ukrainian government officials went to the international airport to personally welcome an important arrival to the nation. The prime minister, foreign minister and president’s chief of staff gathered and shared solemn words about the importance of the event – a shipment of Tamiflu, a drug effective against swine flu.

This unusual scene over the swine flu epidemic is symptomatic of the political fever striking leading politicians. The public health crisis is turning out to be just the latest opportunity to score points against rivals ahead of the presidential election on Jan. 17.

Every issue seems to be caught in the prism of presidential politics. The week also saw President Victor Yushchenko, for instance, sign a law hiking minimum wages and pensions, thus imperiling further anti-crisis loans from the International Monetary Fund. While Yushchenko defended his action as support for poor people, most saw it as a way for him to foil presidential rival, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, who had staked her credibility with the IMF on defeating the budget-busting legislation.

Observers say that. with the ballot drawing nearer, anything is fair game in pursuit of the presidential prize. The next 70 days are expected to be filled with populist decisions, grandstanding and even more infighting – if that’s possible.

Panic broke out on Oct. 30 as deaths from flu and respiratory infections increased, leading to the announcement of a swine flu epidemic by the health minister. That day, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko swiftly introduced travel restrictions, closed all schools and universities and banned mass gatherings for at least three weeks. She conducted a live TV session on Oct. 31 with the cabinet, health officials and regional officials.

The flames were fanned by politicians from all sides. They went on television to explain what needed to be done. In the case of Tymoshenko’s opponents, they attacked her response of the outbreak. Party of Regions leader Victor Yanukovych demanded the sacking of the health minister and a criminal investigation into allegedly misspent budget funds.

President Victor Yushchenko called for unity, and then attacked Tymoshenko’s government for a slow and inadequate response. In his address to the nation on Nov. 4 he said some government officials’ negligence could be criminal.

“I have addressed the general prosecutor of Ukraine with the request to institute criminal charges of negligence committed by, first of all, the chief sanitary inspector, Kyiv city sanitarian and the officials, who, despite having daily information on the epidemic situation in the country, neglected it in pursuit of political dividends and ambition.”

The president and prime minister have been locked in a battle of one-upmanship over the flu epidemic in the last week. Yushchenko said Ukraine would produce one million protective masks per day; Tymoshenko promised 100 million. Yushchenko called for help from abroad; Tymoshenko encouraged people to make their own masks and railed against pharmacies for “profiteering.”

According to Taras Berezovets, an adviser to the prime minister, Tymoshenko rushed to make the announcement on Oct. 30 after she found out that Yushchenko was preparing a statement that evening to launch drastic measures and use the outbreak against her.

“Everyone’s trying to use the situation to their advantage,” said Volodymyr Fesenko, director of the Penta Center for Applied Political Studies. “Tymoshenko has the best chance of increasing her rating as she is at the center of attention. But she is risking more than the others. If the situation gets worse, she will be held responsible. But it’s also a chance for Yanukovych as he can just criticize his main opponent.”

Politicians also said the swine flu hype is a convenient way to cover up the country’s more serious problems.

“The flu epidemic in our country will end after the presidential campaign,” predicted parliamentary speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn. “I get the impression that Ukrainian politicians have subtly shifted people’s attention to this problem, while all other problems have lost their urgency. The problem exists and it should be resolved, but Ukraine has been offered hysteria, and people are being used as an election tool.”

Berezovets blamed the media for the panic, and accused Tymoshenko’s opponents of using the epidemic for self-promotion. “Scandals are always used against any prominent candidate,” he said, citing the child molesting accusations against deputies in the prime minister’s party in October.

The Health Ministry moved to dispel accusations of overreaction on Nov. 3. In a letter to parliamentary deputies made available to the media, Health Minister Vasyl Kniazevych wrote that figures showed a spike in people falling sick last week compared with 2008.

Glenn Thomas, a spokesman with the World Health Organization team currently in Kyiv, praised the authorities’ “transparent and rapid” response. “Ukraine immediately alerted the WHO as soon as concern over the levels emerged and have also prepared for a series of actions and efforts to be put in place that can help mitigate any impact from pandemic flu,” he said.

Politicians continue to fight over other issues.

On the same day that the swine flu hysteria broke out, Yushchenko dealt a hammer blow to an already cash-starved budget – and Ukraine’s chances of securing much-needed further IMF lending – by signing a populist law to increase wages and pensions by 20 percent.

Tymoshenko also announced on Oct. 30 that the government was ready to buy Hr 500 million worth of anti-flu drugs, but it wasn’t clear where the money was to come from.

If the IMF suspends its financial lifeline for Ukraine, the government will struggle to finance a widening budget deficit, analysts from Dragon Capital wrote in a note. “Ukraine’s chances of receiving financing from other donors such as the World Bank will be close to zero, implying the government will have to either rely on domestic borrowings or seek financing from foreign countries – the latter talks have proved futile so far,” they said.

Yushchenko, who in January slammed Tymoshenko’s budget for spending that did not “correspond to the capabilities of the economy,” said he signed the law to protect “pensioners, poor people, and the disabled.”

Tymoshenko’s camp, however, saw sinister political motives. “Yushchenko is considering every possibility to stop Tymoshenko from winning the election,” Berezovets said.

But the social spending gambit was not Yushchenko’s alone. Yanukovych, Tymoshenko’s main rival for the presidency, instigated the issue. His deputies blocked parliament for several weeks demanding the hikes.

Penta Center’s Fesenko said supporters of the law were “killing two birds with one stone.”

They are making it look as if they are “helping ordinary citizens at a time of crisis,” but the law also creates “risks for the economy” and “the prime minister,” Fesenko said.

Economists say that the jump in wages not only puts pressure on the budget and jeopardizes further lending from the IMF, but also threatens the recovery of the economy. Some steelmakers have announced that layoffs will be necessary.

“The short-term effects of the new law should be very painful for the [steel] industry,” said Ismail Safaraliyev, an analyst at Foyil Securities.

The only short-term effects on the minds of presidential candidates, however, appear to be the results of the Jan. 17 vote.