You're reading: Georgia’s Saakashvili doubts Russia will risk military conflict with Ukraine

Visiting Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili said Ukraine is “a hard nut to crack” for Russia.

Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili said Ukraine has no reason to fear a military conflict with Russia anytime soon. “Ukraine is a hard nut to crack for Russia,” he told the Kyiv Post in a brief interview on Nov. 18. Contradicting previous statements, in which he has warned that Ukraine could be next on Russia’s list as a target, the Georgian president said: “Many fear that Crimea could become a second Abkhazia, but I don’t think [Russia will demonstrate aggression] here.”

Saakashvili knows what it’s like to be on the losing end of a war with Russia. In 2008, a brief and devastating war between Russia and Georgia led Russia to proclaim that two breakaway Georgian provinces – Abkhazia and South Ossetia – were now sovereign states.

Russia justified the war by saying it defended South Ossetia and Abkhazia from Georgian “aggression.” Many fear that a similar pretext can be used in Crimea, where the Russian Black Sea Fleet and many ethnic Russians are located. Fears intensified earlier this year when the Russian Duma approved the use of the Russian military forces abroad.

Saakashvili’s two-day visit to Kyiv on Nov. 18-19 coincided with the visit of Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin to Yalta, where he was meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart Yulia Tymoshenko. The two prime ministers were expected to discuss gas issues; particularly the threat of a multi-billion fine Ukraine can face for buying less gas from Russian than has been contracted for.

Saakashvili, on the other hand, met with Ukrainian counterpart and friend Victor Yushchenko. During last year’s Georgian-Russian conflict, Yushchenko drew sharp criticism from Moscow by openly supporting Tbilisi.

Warm Ukrainian-Georgian relations continue to be an irritant for Russia, accusses Ukraine of supplying weapons to Georgia last year, as well as soldiers. Ukraine insists its arm sales to Georgia were legal. Saakashvili told the Ready to Answer TV talk show on TRK Ukraine TV channel that Ukraine “never” illegally sold weapons to his country, and that Ukrainians “never took part in the war.”

According to the United Nations, Ukraine sold 74 tanks to Georgia in 2007. In 2008, Ukraine sold Georgia 25 armored personnel carriers, 15 infantry fighting vehicles, 60 light machine-guns and 17,404, assault rifles and submachine-guns.

However, deputy prosecutor General Renat Kuzmin, who is reportedly close to the Party of Regions party that sided with Russia during the war, told Ukrainska Pravda online newspaper on Nov. 18 that prosecutors launched a criminal case into a company that illegally sold weapons to Georgia. He also said that some Ukrainians were in Georgia during the war, but it’s still unclear whether they took part in the military action.