Voters in the first round of Ukraine's presidential election appeared to hand opposition leader Victor Yanukoyvch, the 2004 Orange Revolution's chief target, a decisive victory over his rival, Orange heroine and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko.
But that lead in Sunday’s vote could prove illusory when the two go head to head next month in the final round of voting.
No matter who wins the Feb. 7 runoff, when it comes to the most important policy issue facing Ukraine, relations with Russia, both candidates may have little choice but to follow the same path.
Analysts say Yanukovych’s 35 percent to 25 percent advantage over Tymoshenko, with more than 90 percent of votes counted Monday, is misleading, because she is likely to pick up most of the votes scattered among 16 also rans.
Some analysts say that despite Tymoshenko’s second-place finish, her sharp political instincts will give her the edge in the runoff.
"Yanukovych’s voter base has been exhausted. Although it was strong and compact and never betrayed him, it did not grow," said Viktor Nebozhenko, director of the sociology institute Ukrainian Barometer. "Tymoshenko, as a great communicator, has a chance to win this election."
Some polls show Tymoshenko trailing Yanukovych in a head-to-head matchup, but analysts say Tymoshenko’s strength is difficult to measure because much of her support comes in rural areas.
In the final poll, analyst Oleksandr Dergachev said, many voters will turn against Yanukovych because of what he called "high levels of distrust" that have prevented him from getting more than 40 percent of the vote in nationwide elections.
"It is difficult to predict the outcome of the second round, but Yanukovych will find it harder to expand the electorate than Tymoshenko," Dergachev said.
Despite sharp differences and personal animosity, Tymoshenko and Yanukovych share a similar view of Ukraine’s relations with Russia, its giant neighbor to the east, by far Ukraine’s biggest trading partner and the region’s dominant military power.
In the future, NATO membership is out. There will be no more Kremlin-bashing in Kiev, and relations with Georgia will not be nearly as close as they were under Orange President Viktor Yushchenko, who was trounced in Sunday’s ballot, getting just 5.5 percent of the vote.
Five years ago many Orange protesters dreamed of breaking Ukraine’s historic dependence on Moscow and becoming part of Western Europe.
But they’ve had a rude awakening, in the form of a battle with Russia over energy prices, the 2008 Russia-Georgia war and one of the worst recessions in Europe.
All seemed to demonstrate that like it or not, Ukraine couldn’t get along without good relations with Moscow, its historic ally.
The blunt-spoken Yanukovych, a former electrician and factory manager, has pledged to scrap Ukraine’s NATO bid and elevate Russian to the status of a second official language alongside Ukrainian.
Tymoshenko, a heroine of the 2004 pro-Western Orange Revolution, in 2007 criticized what she called Russia’s imperial ambitions. But in the past year she has made peace with the Kremlin on energy and security issues.
Despite warnings of large-scale election fraud in the days leading up to Sunday’s vote, officials and election observers said the ballot seemed fair and orderly.
Andrei Magera, deputy head of the Ukrainian Central Election Commission, said there was no evidence of voter intimidation or organized fraud. "There was nothing similar to mass actions that took place in the year of 2004 when voters with absentee ballots had been carried all over Ukraine by buses," he said.
Matyas Eorsi, chairman of the observation mission from the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE), called it "a very peaceful poll."
Five years ago, fraud allegations sent tens of thousands of Ukrainians into the streets of Kiev, demanding an end to what they regarded as a corrupt regime. After weeks of protests, Yushchenko beat Yanukovych in a court-ordered revote.
Yushchenko’s win was hailed in the West as a victory by democratic forces over the cynical veterans of Ukraine’sSoviet regime. But in Moscow, many saw it as part of a Western plot to surround and weaken Russia.
After his election, Yushchenko became embroiled in political skirmishing that paralyzed the government and he failed to push through many of his promised reforms.
Yanukovych seemed elated by his victory over Yushchenko, his old rival, on Sunday. "Today marks the end of Orange power," he said. "There will be no room for (Yushchenko) in the second round. He has officially lost the faith of the people."
Ukraine’s currency crashed in 2008, the economy sputtered and the International Monetary Fund had to step in with a $16.4 billion (€11.41 billion) bailout. Ukraine’s gross domestic product plunged by 15 percent in 2009, according to the World Bank, which estimates that the country will see anemic growth this year.
The next president will same the same problems.
Yury Yakimenko, an analyst at Razumkov Center, said the presidency itself is hopelessly compromised, because the office’s powers were given to parliament as part of a compromise that ended the 2004 conflict.
"Either Tymoshenko or Yanukovych will be forced to reform the Constitution to have real authority to overcome the crisis," Yakimenko predicted. "Ukraine is mired in political squabbles and fights. The economic situation is close to collapse. The situation could spiral out of control."
Yanukovych faces one of the biggest challenges, Yakimenko said, because if he becomes president he will have to work with Prime Minister Tymoshenko. "This will lead to a new political war and early parliamentary elections."
