Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko said on Feb. 4 she would call people out onto the streets if she considered procedures and vote-counting were rigged in next Sunday's election for president.
The Feb. 7 election pits Prime Minister Tymoshenko against opposition leader Yanukovych, bringing to a climax a nasty campaign in which both sides have accused the other of planning to rig the vote and lying to the electorate.
Its outcome could re-set the ex-Soviet republic’s poor relations with its former imperial master, Russia, and decide the speed of its path into the European mainstream.
But Tymoshenko, 49, whose fiery rhetoric helped deny Yanukovich the presidency after a rigged election in 2004, declared she was ready to mount new mass protests to stop what she said were his plans to carry out electoral fraud again.
"If we do not manage … to ensure that the expression of the people’s will and the results of this will are held in an honest way we will call people out," Tymoshenko told a news conference. "There is absolutely no doubt about it."
"If Yanukovych wants an honest fight, we are ready to compete with him, but if he seeks to cheat, we will be able to rebuff him in a way he has never seen, even in 2004," she said.
Yanukovych, 59, brushed off the threat. "This is a sign of weakness and a sign that she has understood she is losing," he said in eastern Ukraine, Interfax-Ukraine quoted him as saying.
"The only people who will go to Independence Square are those who like the same dishes as Tymoshenko — dirt, lies and slander," he said.
The election is too close to call, most analysts say, reflecting a deep split in the country of 46 million.
Yanukovych’s support base is in the Russian-speaking industrial east and south, while Tymoshenko is popular in the Ukrainian-speaking western and central regions. He had a 10 percent lead over her in the first round on Jan. 17.
Some analysts said Tymoshenko sensed defeat was in the air and her announcement, televised on state-run First Channel, was aimed at gaining maximum publicity now to boost her campaign.
"She is seeking confrontation either to get some sort of compromise favourable for herself after the elections … or to secure some honourable way out without feeling totally beaten," analyst Volodymyr Fesenko told Reuters.
"There will not be a second Orange Revolution", he added.
Any chaos on the streets or court challenge of the result would slow a return to political stability and a resumption of talks with the International Monetary Fund over a suspended $16.4 billion bail-out programme for the struggling economy.
ELECTORAL RULES
In the 2004 "Orange Revolution", in which Yanukovych was tagged a pro-Moscow stooge, a court ordered a third round of voting which the pro-Western President Viktor Yushchenko, then Tymoshenko’s ally, went on to win.
Tymoshenko based her fraud accusations against Yanukovych on a parliamentary vote, pushed through by his Regions Party, to amend electoral rules at individual polling stations.
OnFeb. 4she renewed an appeal to Yushchenko, who has since become her political foe, to use his powers to block Wednesday’s parliamentary move.
But his website later said he had signed it into law.
The charismatic Tymoshenko, a former gas tycoon, and Yanukovych, a rough-hewn ex-mechanic with the bearing of an old-style Soviet apparatchik, have savaged each other in the campaign.
She has called him a coward and "puppet" of wealthy industrialists in eastern Ukraine. He accuses her of systematic deception and telling "beautiful" lies.
Though they contrast as personalities, they have similar policies. Both say they want to integrate with Europe while improving ties with Moscow, which deteriorated under Yushchenko, though Tymoshenko is seen as more enthusiastic about the EU.
Yanukovych has said he wants to renegotiate a gas supply deal with Russia, which set market prices for gas as of this year, though he has not given details.
A new president will have to re-open talks with the IMF which suspended its programme to Ukraine at the end of last year over broken promises.
But the speed with which the programme resumes depends on how quickly post-election stability returns and whether a parliamentary election — delaying formation of a new government — is called.
Yanukovych has ruled out any political alliance with Tymoshenko after the election.
