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Poll shows Yushchenko continues to be popular

ide public opinion polls, conducted by the Kyiv International Institute for Sociology and the SocioPolis polling organization. Both indicated, with some minor variations, that the Communists, the United Social Democrats and the People’s Democratic Party are currently the strongest potential vote getters in the coming parliamentary elections.

However, part of the SocioPolis poll dealt with the popularity of specific party leaders and produced some data that could be relevant to the future presidential campaign.

After questioning the 2,200 respondents on their party preferences, the question was reformulated as follows: “Please choose five persons from the following list of 48 leaders whom you would choose to head the party list for which you would be most likely to vote.” The preferences shown are as follows: Viktor Yushchenko, 26.0 percent; Petro Symonenko, 21.1 percent; Oleksandr Moroz, 11.4 percent; Anatoly Kinakh, 9.5 percent; Natalia Vitrenko, 9.1 percent; Viktor Medvedchuk, 7.4 percent; Viktor Pynzenyk, 6.5 percent; Yulia Tymoshenko, 6.3 percent.

While the polling was based on questions related to the parties vying for the parliament, the data seem to indicate that Yushchenko still has fairly broad support and that this could translate into the basis for a presidential bid if he is able to maintain and enhance his image. Yushchenko’s main problem at the moment seems to be the considerable difficulty he is having determining just who is in and who is out of his new inter-factional grouping Our Ukraine.

Independence Day parade beefed up

Listening to Deputy Defense Minister Ivan Bizhan describe the annual Independence Day military parade, you would think the military’s performance was being graded by the kilogram. If that is the case, the army certainly seems to have exceeded its quota.

The major new item in this year’s parade will be ten brand-new, Ukrainian-made T-84 battle tanks. Bizhan pointed out that the 48-ton T-84’s will be sporting rubber tracks for the parade. However, even with rubber tracks, that comes to 480 tons of military hardware rolling down Khreshchatyk with unknown consequences for the roadway.

While the tanks will be the major new item in the military parade, all branches of the military are turning out large contingents. All told, 6,000 military personnel will march – or roll – past the reviewing stand where President Kuchma will be joined by Russian President Vladimir Putin and a host of other dignitaries.

Shrinking populations

Among the many problems shared by Ukraine and Russia, there is one that gets relatively little mention. Both countries are faced with declining populations. This was demonstrated once again by data issued by Ukraine’s State Statistics Committee earlier this month.

In 1989, Ukraine’s population was 51.7 million. Since then, it has been in slow but steady decline. Latest statistics indicate a current figure of about 49.1 million, and the rate of decline is increasing. If the net loss of 207,000 for the first half of 2001 is repeated in the second half as expected, and if the rate of decline continues to grow, Ukraine could soon be seeing a net annual population loss of as much as one-half million persons per year.

In both Ukraine and Russia, the most important reasons for the population decline are alcohol consumption, poor health care and the depression brought about by the poor economic situation.

The cork that keeps bobbing to the top

When Yulia Tymoshenko was removed from her position as deputy prime minister for energy policy earlier this year, many thought her star might go into permanent decline, particularly given the charges brought against her in Ukraine.

Tymoshenko has steadfastly refused to fade away quietly, however, and she is now in fact enjoying a bit of a renaissance. In addition to frequent press reports and interviews in Ukraine, and to a lesser extent in Russia, Tymoshenko somehow manages to attract considerable foreign press attention. On Aug. 14, she was the subject of a generally very favorable profile piece in the major U.S. news service, MSNBC, jointly operated by Bill Gates’ Microsoft and the National Broadcasting Company.

Tymoshenko recently came under renewed attack with charges announced by both the Russian military prosecutor and the civilian prosecutor general. However, she somehow continues to be able to position herself in the press as the subject of political attacks orchestrated by Kuchma.

Wage arrears remain high

In spite of what was announced as a considerable improvement in the wage arrears situation during the month of June (an arrears decrease of Hr 72.2 million), the Minister of Labor and Social Policies Ivan Sakhan admits there is still a huge problem. Overall wage arrears now stand at Hr 4.2 billion (equivalent to about $778 million.)

Deputy Prime Minister for Humanitarian Issues Volodymyr Seminozhenko said that 14 oblasts have still not paid teachers their summer holiday payments. He did, however, promise that all will be paid on Sept. 1.