Ukraine under President Viktor Yanukovych is in decline and becoming more dangerous, slinking into 2012 with diminished prospects on many fronts – including a new natural gas deal with Russia and closer ties with the European Union.
It would be nice if the European Union and Ukraine formally initialed a trade association agreement during their summit in Kyiv on Dec. 19. But the truth is, Ukraine is moving further from the civilized and developed world, not closer.
If the EU adheres to democratic standards, there is currently no chance that its 27 members will ratify trade and other agreements with Ukraine as long as the
Yanukovych administration continues its present course.
Brussels should, instead, step up the pressure against Yanukovych and his slide away from democracy, rule of law and pluralism. The arguments that EU snubs will only hurt Ukrainians aren’t very persuasive. To the contrary, a tough stance may help give Ukraine’s people the needed impetus to press the Yanukovych administration for change.
The true character of his regime becomes clearer with each passing day. Simply put, Yulia Tymoshenko is in jail and Leonid Kuchma isn’t.
Yanukovych-loyal judges, prosecutors and police are determined to keep Tymoshenko, the former prime minister, in prison at all costs. At the same time, a Kyiv district court on Dec. 14 may have ended the authorities’ 11-year pretense of seeking justice for the Sept. 16, 2000, murder of journalist Georgiy Gongadze.
In dropping charges against ex-President Kuchma, who has been implicated in the murder, authorities are simply ignoring mountains of compelling evidence.
As we wrote on March 25 after the charges were lodged against Kuchma, who was never jailed during the pre-trial phase: “One clear test of the authorities’ commitment to justice is how long it takes to bring Kuchma to trial.
Most of the evidence seemingly has been known for nearly 11 years. This means that weeks should not slip into months before Kuchma faces a public trial. If the case drags on, the public will know for sure what they already suspect: that the March 24 charges are just the latest phase of the Gongadze cover-up.”
And so they were. The Kuchma charges turned out to be just more Yanukovych window-dressing, a pose that he was meting out justice evenhandedly — to Kuchma and to Tymoshenko.
For the West, Yanukovych has long said one thing – that he favors democracy – while he does another – namely, dismantle it. As for Russia, it appears that the only way energy-dependent Ukraine will be able to get Russia to cut the price of its gas by half – from $400 to $200 per 1,000 cubic meters – is by surrendering part of a strategic asset: Its gas-transit pipelines that carry 80 percent of Russian gas to Europe.
Such a deal would be an unacceptable betrayal of national interests. It would sacrifice the nation’s future for the short-term political and financial gains of Yanukovych and his oligarch cronies, who own Ukraine’s most valuable steel mills and energy-guzzling chemical plants.
Don’t rule anything out with this crowd.
