Illusion of stability
Mar 11, 2010 at 22:19But stability has more often been the darling of tyrants, who seldom stop there in their relentless hunger for ever more power and less democracy.
Western governments and election monitors were quick to recognize this year’s paper-thin electoral victory of Viktor Yanukovych. Voting wasn’t anywhere near as fraudulent as in 2004, when Yanukovych had his “win” overturned by democratic protesters during the Orange Revolution.
Now all eyes are on the new ruling majority in parliament and a government headed by Prime Minister Mykola Azarov. It was formed not on persuasion or compromise, but by changing the law – unconstitutionally, in our view – and by recruiting 16 deserters of different factions to join the ruling parties of Regions, Communists and Speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn’s bloc. The idea of cherry-picking lawmakers from the factions of former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and former President Victor Yushchenko is like removing the contents of a labeled jar and selling it under a different label.
Any coalition based on doling out of state offices, cash bribes or threats to business interests is inherently unstable. Such was Ukraine under international pariah Leonid Kuchma, the nation’s president from 1994-2005, who has interestingly become more vocal of late.
Ukraine’s winner-take-all politics is a vicious circle, with the country coming out as the loser.
Besides Western governments and election observers, many international business people are just as guilty of attaching too much importance to “stability.” Are their memories so short as to have forgotten the days of overnight grain export quotas, stacked privatizations, tax police raids, sanctioned lawlessness, etc.?
Pointing out the populism of Tymoshenko or mushrooming corruption under Yushchenko is not a valid counter-argument. Yushchenko never cleaned house at the General Prosecutor General’s Office. But Yanukovych is headed towards controlling the prosecutor, police and security services. That’s a lot of power for one man, especially considering that he will have a compliant premier and parliament. The only type of stability it can bring is the kind Vladimir Putin brought to Russia – inherently unstable authoritarianism.
Is this what the international community wants? Those truly interested in Ukraine should speak up for the rule of law, the integrity of the Constitution and the need for checks and balances -- not just for broad political consensus. This will help bring genuine long-term stability.