Ukraine's leading English-language newspaper since 1995

May 10, 2001

Members of the oligarch factions in parliament who helped force Prime Minister Viktor Yushchenko out of office say they did it because he was slow on reforms. How, then, do they explain the mess Yushchenko’s ouster has created in the Cabinet?

Realists predicted that the same Rada deputies who voted to swiftly unseat Yushchenko would be able to just as swiftly sweep a new candidate into office. Some even said that would be a good thing, as improved harmony between the prime minister and parliament would make passing laws easier.

That logic was flawed to begin with – oligarch‑party stalwarts like Serhy Tyhypko and company have had chances to reform the country with previous governments and failed. But it also overlooked the fact that the pro‑Kuchma “reformers” who ousted Yushchenko did so with the help of the Communists.

Once you get in bed with the Communists, you can’t just crawl right out without experiencing a few negative after‑effects. The short‑term consequences are being seen now in the form of a looming government stalemate. President Leonid Kuchma has yet to nominate a replacement for Yushchenko, probably because he realizes that there’s not a candidate out there who stands a good chance of confirmation in the Rada. The Communists have split into two groups, one of which appears to be set on preventing a pro‑Kuchma candidate from the oligarch factions from taking office. The other group, an unprincipled bunch led by Party boss Petro Symonenko, would vote for anyone if it meant more power. Thus they would likely support an oligarch‑nominated candidate only if meant prime posts in the next government for Communist members.

Thus we are left with two possible scenarios: either parliament will approve a government littered with Communists and headed by an oligarch‑friendly candidate; or parliament will fail to approve any government, leaving the country in a state of paralysis and possibly leading to Kuchma dissolving parliament for not confirming a prime minister. Neither scenario is going to do much to create an atmosphere conducive to passing the “reforms” the anti‑Yushchenko forces claim to be after.

Of course the oligarch‑faction members knew that Yushchenko’s ouster would create just the mess it has. That makes their rhetoric about wanting to speed up reforms all the more laughable. It’s more likely that they welcome the current chaos in the government. They can exploit the temporary lawlessness to go back to illegally squeezing money out of the many sectors of Ukrainian industry that they control. It was Yushchenko’s efforts to introduce transparency in those sectors and redirect some wealth into the pockets of state workers and pensioners that got him into trouble with the oligarchs in the first place.

While the oligarchs may be benefiting from their one‑night stand with the Communists in the short‑term, there may be a long‑term consequence that they can’t escape: getting trounced in the 2002 parliamentary elections. The majority of Ukraine’s voters have voted anti‑communist in past elections. Next year might not they penalize the oligarchs for siding with the Communists?

If only Ukrainian politics were so simple.

- Greg Bloom