Eastern Ukraine falls into disenchantment
Discontent with government activity is on the rise in President Viktor Yanukovych’s native region. Miners’ wives have gathered outside the municipal building in Donetsk in a spontaneously organized protest to demand improvements to living standards. The women claim that food has now become a luxury item, as their tiny salaries are required to pay for services that should be provided by the state.
According to protesters, the authorities also support and cover up the illegal extraction of coal which siphons $1.26 billion a year into the shadow economy. Some protesters also possess evidence that the authorities tried to intimidate them and block their access to the demonstration.
According to protesters, the authorities also support and cover up the illegal extraction of coal which siphons $1.26 billion a year into the shadow economy. Some protesters also possess evidence that the authorities tried to intimidate them and block their access to the demonstration.
Currently the miners discharge their outrage only upon the local authorities, under the assumption that Yanukovych would not sanction their plight. However, the Ukrainian characteristic of naivety is on the decline.
The GfK Ukraine survey conducted in January shows that 54 percent of respondents think that the nation is moving in the wrong direction; 59.3 percent of respondents to the survey carried out by the Gorshenin Institute in February view the activity of the current government as ineffective and not in their interests.
In summing up his first year of office, Yanukovych promised to focus his attention on the coal industry and those who rely upon it. These statements give the president’s loyal supporters hope. But should they lose it, the backlash would be very public and not easily quashed.
People First Comment: It would appear that Yanukovych has achieved in one year what it took Viktor Yushchenko and Yulia Tymoshenko five years to achieve. After the Orange Revolution, western Ukrainian were delighted that they had what they believed was a democratic president and an inspired prime minister. The east and south were a little disappointed. It took five years for western Ukraine to realize the awful truth. This time it has taken Yanukovych’s team a little more than year to convince their core electorate that they are little better than the previous incumbents of Bankova Street.
The enormous tax-free profits enjoyed by the elite have created the illusion that everything in the country is stable. What is ironic about this situation is that, according to the recent GfK survey, the north, south, east and west of Ukraine are now all saying the same thing. For once we actually have a country united behind a common understanding: their universal disappointment with the entire political system and the political class.
This form of Ukrainian democracy, if you can call it that, simply does not work and cannot deliver social justice, economic security, wealth or the employment promised. It is not the politicians with their oligarch controllers that are incapable, it is that any political system that allows politicians and power brokers to live above the law is fundamentally flawed and is incapable of delivering the benefits of democracy in any form. Democracy can only work in an environment of transparency, public accountability and adherence to the law.
Divisive times for Party of Regions
After receiving absolute power in Ukraine one year ago, the Party of Regions now faces its most significant challenge – internal conflict, which may jeopardize party unity prior to the parliamentary elections in the autumn of 2012. Disputes between the Presidential Administration and government, governmental criticism in publications owned by party members and frequent conflicts between members at local level suggest that the Party of Regions is losing control over leaks into the public domain and that the disunity is too rife to contain.
A lack of core ideology and focus on microeconomics has led some to suggest that the few bonds within Party of Regions are weakening and that schisms and factions already exist beneath the surface. The Party of Regions also suffers growing unpopularity due to the poor social and economic performance of Ukraine, the decline in living standards, the continuing fallout from the world economic crisis and limited state capitalization of national resources. Now that his power is centralized and secured, the president has no interested in preserving a strong and influential Party of Regions, as they could prove to be a primary competitor in future power struggles.
People First Comment: Let us not forget that Party of Regions is a coalition not of two or more political ideologies, as in many Western countries, but a coalition of business groups all determined to have their slice of the budget pie. Even the present Communist Party uses its ideology to fight for personal gain rather than the realization of their ideals. In reality they are all little more than money-making machines. We have seen how easy it is for politicians to cross the floor to opposing camps. Therefore, to now see cracks appearing in the Party of Regions coalition is hardly surprising as one clan fights the other for better feeding rights. Perhaps the president’s grip on power is not a vertical as some might think.
People First Comment: Let us not forget that Party of Regions is a coalition not of two or more political ideologies, as in many Western countries, but a coalition of business groups all determined to have their slice of the budget pie. Even the present Communist Party uses its ideology to fight for personal gain rather than the realization of their ideals. In reality they are all little more than money-making machines. We have seen how easy it is for politicians to cross the floor to opposing camps. Therefore, to now see cracks appearing in the Party of Regions coalition is hardly surprising as one clan fights the other for better feeding rights. Perhaps the president’s grip on power is not a vertical as some might think.
Unused tools of European influence
European experts, among them Nico Lange, director of the representative office of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Ukraine, have questioned whether the EU has sufficient instruments to effectively influence Ukraine. Perhaps Europe has truly given up on Ukraine.
Lange and other experts have contributed suggestions for pressuring Ukraine towards democracy, including: the refusal to sign agreements between the EU and Ukraine; economic pressure on Ukrainian business heavyweights who export their products to Europe, such as a 50 percent customs fee on Ukrainian goods; refusal of a visa for high-ranking officials, as already experienced by officials from Belarus and Russia; freezing of assets as in the case of Libya.
People First Comment: Lange is right in his assessment that the EU does not currently have sufficient instruments to influence Ukraine but this may well change. The acceptance of the Lisbon treaty gave the EU teeth for the first time. As a result, the EU is now beginning to flex its muscles, particularly on matters of foreign policy. Russia has already recognized the change and is now taking a much more collective and pragmatic approach to EU member states, while Ukraine still seems to lumber on in the misguided opinion that they will be able to say one thing and do another without the EU noticing.
Death knell for Ukrainian democracy?
The return to the “majority or mixed” system of elections for Verkhovna Rada has secured a veritable monopoly of influence for Party of Regions and the president, with the idea of opposition remaining wholly theoretical. Even if the opposition should triumph under the proportional election system, it is doomed to insignificance, as the governing party’s administrative resources will easily pressure favor in the majority constituencies.
The “majority or mixed” system, re-established Nov. 2 under presidential decree, is not without its technical caveats. The government has assigned a work group to produce a draft law by the end of March. During his “Conversation with the Country,” Yanukovych voiced that he will sign no law that compromises the “majority or mixed” system, which he believes to increase social responsibility and the effectiveness of the parliament. Volodymyr Shapoval, chairman of the Ukrainian Central Election Commission, supports the president’s initiative. Public opinion is yet to be swayed – the research of the Laboratory of Legislative Initiatives and TNS shows that 48.9 percent of Ukrainians are against the implementation of a new mixed system prior to the next parliamentary elections.
People First Comment: What is most disconcerting about the political engineering that is taking place at present is that it is all so obvious. To date the presidential team has manipulated the constitution in order to create a vertical power system, run a distinctly questionable local authority election as a pretext to alter the election law for the next parliamentary elections and now they want to adjust the shape and size of constituencies in their favor. All this has one singular purpose… to stay in power for as long as possible by any means possible. What is being created is yet another circle where the Party of Regions is altering legislation to suit their ends. It is a route to nowhere.
This strategy defies even the most basic of logic. First we are no longer living in the early 20th Century. Next, the people of Ukraine are extremely well-educated and have easy access to the Internet and mobile phone networks. Finally, the world has grown very tired of politicians treating their countries as their own personal possessions. Whether the Party of Regions likes it or not, more than 90 percent of Ukrainians vote for a democratic state, which means that the president, parliament and the government are all answerable to the people.
The most frustrating factor in Ukrainian politics is the political culture of those calling themselves opposition. They seem unable or incapable to either protest or to maintain any constructive dialogue with the people despite the fact that the current authorities have created a reality in which it is virtually impossible not be in opposition. Obviously, it is potentially dangerous to be in opposition in a country where the law protects fraudulent activity, the security services and the courts protect the rich and 450 people’s deputies are unaccountable budget managers. But you either become active in opposition or you forfeit the right to represent the will of the people.
Nations are built by people of vision and ability, working in the national interest, each building on the foundations of their predecessors and not by blatant political engineering. If politicians can play with the law, then so can the people and that is a recipe for total chaos. The history of Ukraine and its people proves that even the strongest of patience eventually comes to an end.
Viktor Tkachuk is chief executive of the People First Foundation, a politically independent democracy foundation. He is a former deputy secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, a former senior adviser to three presidents and a former member of the Ukrainian parliament.
