Imprisoned opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko knows this. Between bouts of debilitating pain she is calling for the opposition to unite, even proposing her party surrenders seats in some majoritarian wards for the sake of coalition unity. But are the democratic forces listening? Have they learned the lessons of the past? Are they equipped to win over the hearts and minds of an increasingly cynical and Internet savvy public? To do so they must throw out the old rule book and change their campaign thinking and methods.
Voters are deeply disillusioned with the current generation of political leaders – all of them. With the ruling Party of Regions flagging in the polls, most commentators expect the election will be rigged and without jailed opposition leaders being released, it’s doubtful that the international community will give the election a clean bill of health. But that’s no reason not to take part.
The challenge facing parties is to win back the trust of the large mass of uncommitted “swing voters.” With so few fresh-faced challengers, the electorate will vote for which party they dislike least rather than which they like most. For many of the old elite, it will be their last chance for glory before a new generation of political leaders emerges.
Policies matter
Democratic parties need to appreciate that most voters are motivated by the economic and social well-being of themselves and their families rather than a desire to preserve democratic freedoms. If you doubt this, compare the numbers protesting against the tax code versus those opposing the imprisonment of Yulia. Indeed, the uptick in support for her Batkivshchyna party is negligible and driven largely by sympathy for the jailed premier than support for her political platform.
The tax code protests of 2010 showed that policies matter. Yet no political party in Ukraine has ever articulated meaningful policies. There are no western-style manifestos. Elections are fought on a combination of personalities and populist promises. When the electorate loses faith – as they have now – this approach simply won’t work.
Politics is like washing powder
It’s time to return to the drawing board. Politicians must reconnect with voters emotionally and intellectually, showing that they understand ordinary people’s concerns and have themselves evolved. Doing so grants permission to communicate policies. These should be tested in focus groups beforehand, in the same way that a new washing powder is tested with would-be consumers before launch. People buy a product for what it can do for them – whether it’s removing stains from shirts or attracting the opposite sex. In the same way, swing voters will vote for a party only if they see a benefit in doing so.
Democratic parties should take a leaf out of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych’s book.
In the 2010 presidential election he was re-packaged, given a makeover and presented as a reformed man. He became the business friendly face of Ukrainian politics, promising political and economic stability, delivered not just by him but by a team of capable technocrats. He offered policies designed to appeal to the middle class (five-year tax holiday for small- and medium-sized businesses, swift value added tax repayments, etc.). He even stole the wind from the Orange camp’s sails by pledging support for European Union membership. Relying on bedrock support in the east and south, administrative resources and candidates designed to hemorrhage votes from Tymoshenko, he scraped over the finish line with a 3.4 percent margin of victory.
Democratic parties must illustrate that they too have learned from past mistakes. They must be fresh and relevant. It’s not enough to look and sound different. They have to be authentic too.
The social media election
A major obstacle to campaigning in 2012 will be the lack of TV airtime granted to democratic parties by media loyal to regime. Parties should therefore embrace the web and social media, using Vkontakte, Facebook and Twitter as weapons of choice. A new generation is growing up which uses the web and social media portals for its daily intake of news. By polling day nearly half the population will have access to the Internet and there will be an estimated 1.7 million Facebook users in Ukraine of which 78 percent will be of voting age. Also, democrats should campaign outside of the box, using eye-catching stunts to grab media attention. You don’t need to strip off FEMEN-style to convey a message creatively and with impact.
The young and middle class represent large demographics that all parties must win over. They are a cynical lot – able to see through the hollow pledges of politicians who let them down in the past. They won’t be bought off by t-shirts and baseball caps and advertisements of politicians hugging baby tigers. They want their leaders to have a well thought out ‘change agenda’ and to be accountable for policies that will benefit them on a personal level. They want a future. And while they want leaders possessing the ‘x-factor,’ they appreciate that ‘teams of talent’ are needed to pull Ukraine around.
When it comes to advertising, the democrats must be in lock-step with the mood of the electorate. Billboard images of benevolent leaders calling for a strong Ukraine will have far less appeal than a housewife from Lviv, a student form Luhansk and a miner from Donetsk telling the people how it really is and pledging support for the party offering a better future.
Of course, there will be calls to boycott the polls. Yet this election is not just about winning votes. Up for grabs is the mindshare of voters now and in the future, for this current regime is unlikely to endure. If parties want a tomorrow, they must act now. The onus is on thinking and campaigning differently. The unanswered question is are they up to it?
Neil Pattie is managing director of Ridge Consulting Ltd, a UK-based communications consultancy that has advised clients in Ukraine including the party of opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko
