Yulia Pushko gives three scenarios for political developments for the next year, none optimistic.

Summertime is traditionally a time for optimism, for renewal and for making a fresh start. With regard to Ukraine’s political situation, however, our outlook is not so rosy. Our analysis is that, no matter what happens (or fails to happen) in the next six months, the government is likely to continue to be gridlocked, with no clear direction and territorial infighting blocking any forward momentum.

We have not given up on Ukraine, but as pragmatists we cannot foresee any meaningful progress in the near-term. As the presidential election season gets under way, we see three scenarios:



1. Yanukovych or Tymoshenko elected

The first scenario is that either Regions Party leader Viktor Yanukovych or Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, the leader of the eponymous bloc, will be elected president in January. One of the president’s first official acts is to recommend a prime minister to parliament. Yanukovych will not nominate Tymoshenko if he wins, nor will she support him if she becomes president. Parliament, in its present configuration has no faction or party with a clear majority, and coalitions have been highly unstable. Parliament will continue to reject the president’s nominees until a coalition can be created – an act that could easily take months into the new president’s first year in office. Should Yanukovych be elected, Tymoshenko would remain in the prime minister’s seat until replaced. In any event, continued political stagnation and turmoil would result… along with early parliamentary elections prior to the official 2012 date.


2. The dark horses

Insiders say that former Parliament Speaker Arseniy Yatsenyuk is sponsored by oligarchs, including embattled RosUkrEnergo owner Dmitry Firtash. With the massive media resources of the Firtash-controlled Inter TV channel, Victor Pinchuk’s three channels and lots of loyal newspapers, the young Yatsenyuk might have enough resources to capture the public’s imagination. The problem with this “new face” is that he does not have a dedicated support base – 90 percent of all his supporters would be the remnants of Our Ukraine and other disillusioned Yushchenko allies and possibly a few votes from BYuT. That may mean that the fresh choice turns out to be Yushchenko Lite, complete with the attendant intrigues and domestic battles for influence. Further, he’d be beholden to the oligarchs and their interests. He may be able only to unite Regions and the Bloc of Yulia Tymoshenko – in opposing him.


3. What election?

The presidential election on Jan. 17 may not happen at all, if parliament and the Constitutional Court approve an amendment that cancels the direct election of the president by the people, giving the Verkhovna Rada authority to appoint someone to the post. This would further weaken the office.

BYuT and Regions have allegedly already prepared amendments for submission. However, Regions’ popularity rating are still stronger than BYuT's and Yanukovych has little incentive to toss out an office he can win. Yanukovych figuratively left Tymoshenko at the altar, calling off the alliance. In turn, Tymoshenko said that her political forces would concentrate on resolving the economic crisis, and that Yanukovych could not handle the political risks. Likewise, Tymoshenko bides her time, watching her poll numbers. Still, if the major parties can agree on how to divide power, an amendment becomes a real possibility this fall. An appointed president also rids those in power of surprises from “dark horse” candidates in the future.

Yulia Pushko is government relations director for Willard, a Kyiv-based advertising and public relations consultancy. Her analytical political report, Bird’s Eye View, is available free of charge. She may be reached at yulia.pushko@twg.com.ua.