Joe Biden’s choice
July 02 at 20:06 | Yulia PushkoThe news that U.S. President Barack Obama will visit Moscow on July 6-8 sent the Ukrainian diaspora into an e-mail frenzy as they attempted to lobby the White House to incorporate a swing through Kyiv as well.
American diplomats felt that a joint Russia-Ukraine mission might offend the testy Dmitry Medvedev and Vladimir Putin, and fought that idea. Then the governments announced that U.S. Vice President Joe Biden would visit Ukraine and Georgia between July 20 and 24. The news release included the usual diplo-babble about meeting with leaders, opposition figures and other pivotal parties.
Foreign trips by heads of state often tend to be highly orchestrated affairs that leave the principals with little to do but shake hands, smile for the cameras, follow the script and enjoy the wine.
Biden, who is no newcomer to foreign relations, has a choice: Go through the motions or take on the hard issues. We hope that he opts for substance, pushing Ukraine’s leaders for real action and solidly linking progress with U.S. foreign aid and other benefits.
Issue 1: Cash
Ukraine desperately needs to obtain funds from foreign lenders, starting with the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and other U.S.-led financial institutions. Kyiv expects to receive the third tranche of its IMF loan later in July, and the IMF has been leaning on recipient nations to get rid of bad banks, keep interest rates high and control consumption by tightening social spending. Strangely enough, the West seems to be doing just the opposite. Obama has said that the U.S. should lead by example, and Biden could underscore that, urging Ukraine to use the loans to invest in significant social and infrastructure projects as well. This may tread on toes at IMF & Co., but it might be the best direction.
Issue 2: Gazprom at gate
Ukraine and Russia are in a perpetual tug-of-war over payment for natural gas. It’s a situation destined to arise winter after winter unless a lasting resolution is attained. Europe seems unwilling to get too deeply involved, as it needs Russia’s gas. Should the U.S. offer to intercede? It seems unlikely that doing so would ameliorate U.S.-Russia relations. Vice President Biden could help bail Ukraine out with a $4.2 billion loan package. That a huge financial band-aid, and like an unrepentant credit abuser, Kyiv would likely accrue future gas debt. But Biden might link the gas bailout to solid, sustainable reforms in areas like corruption and governance.
Issue 3: Crimea
The planned U.S. diplomatic office in Simferopol has been put on hold. Moving ahead with it would turn up the heat in Ukraine’s uneasy relationship with Russia. Moscow holds a lease on the Black Sea Fleet’s headquarters in Sevastopol until 2017, and is unlikely to walk away from its only naval access. With some in parliament talking about closing the Russian base early, U.S. diplomats on the ground and a huge number of Crimean residents carrying Russian passports, Crimea is a potential military flashpoint. Biden – who likes to talk – should be urged to practice calm pragmatism with regard to Crimea. Don’t add fuel to embers, inducing a new Cold War on the Crimean peninsula.
Issue 4: Sideline NATO
Ukraine is deeply divided over plans to join NATO. While the government still supports joining the alliance, only one in five citizens favor it, and the proposal is a perennial campaign hot-button. Joining NATO would be an expense that Ukraine can ill afford, and NATO's further intrusion into what Moscow sees as its rightful sphere of influence would increase tensions. Biden may well wish to give Ukraine’s leaders an honorable exit and advise that the country has other more important fish to fry.
Issue 5: Diplomacy
U.S. Ambassador William B. Taylor has left his post, and a successor has not yet been appointed. Taylor has arguably been one of the best ambassadors Washington has sent, though the Americans have a poor track record when it comes to backing winners in Ukrainian political horse races. Early in 1999, the U.S. offered support to Leonid Kuchma, who, contrary to incumbent President Leonid Kravchuk, actively supported an open-market economy. The Kuchma romance died with Georgiy Gongadze and the Kolchuga [radar] scandal [in which Ukraine allegedly violated an international ban on selling advanced military equipment to Saddam Hussen-led Iraq], which deservedly made Kuchma a pariah in the West. In 2004, the West welcomed Victor Yushchenko as a populist democrat, even allowing him to speak to Congress. While Yushchenko still has admirers in the Ukrainian diaspora, pragmatists are aware of his single-digit ratings and are scanning the horizon for friendly faces. We hope that Biden will counsel his president to sit this election out. Pressing for an ideologically correct leader – unofficially, of course – hasn’t been a foreign policy winner to date.
Yulia Pushko is government relations director for Willard, an international advertising and PR consultancy based in Kyiv. She can be reached at yulia.pushko@TWG.com.ua.