The warning bells are ringing yet, there’s been little global concern regarding Ukraine’s tilt towards Russia under President Viktor Yanukovych.Europe, the United States and others, keen on stable trade both with Ukraine and Russia, turn a blind eye to its hegemony in the neighborhood.France and Germany’s Russo-centrism is endemic.Even Poland, a staunch Ukraine supporter, has been seduced.
In a letter to the World Congress of Ukrainians the head of EU’s parliamentary committee on EU/Ukraine co-operation says he “…expects Ukraine to reiterate its determination to continue along its path towards European integration…”an obvious delaying tactic, designed to serve Russia’s interests.Additionally, America’s decision to reset the button strengthens Russia’s hand throughout the region. It appears to have been forgotten that previous appeasements of Russia had disastrous consequences, including the Cold War.It’s most recent defiance in Georgia underscores its disregard for international law or commitments.
It will be hard for Ukraine to withstand Russia’s pressure without support from the international community. Russia’s control is growing daily thanks to President Yanukovych’s policies.None are more inflammatorythanhis disregard of the status of the national language, separatist pronouncements by ministers, seditious calls byvisiting Russian politicians that would make them persona non grata list of most governments.
Perhaps themost controversial “soft” political maneuver has been the government’s official support toRussia’s Orthodox church preaching union to some 15 million adherents with Moscow at the expense of Ukraine’s indigenous church.Certainly, Ukraine’s threatened media has mounted a spunky fight, as have some universities.Top-ranking officials have resigned in protest, there has been indignation over questionable deaths of protestors while in custody, and the internet has been raging.
All of this has been eroding the president’s rating. To begin, the president’s honeymoon is over while his policies are hitting home.He failed to delivered cheaper energy as promised, degraded the education of children from 12 to 11 grades, and pension reforms — apparently bad news — are imminent.The gaping chasm between the fabulously wealthy oligarchs–also the politicians– and the rest is most evident and loudly discussed.Sooner or later the restlessness which brought some 10 thousand faithful, despite government interference, to the celebration of Ukraine’s Christianity with Kyiv’s Patriarch Filaret, may spread.
Yulia Tymoshenko, the de facto opposition leader may yet catch fire too.The destructive campaign mounted against her by former President Victor Yushchenko has been damaging.Even more, his refusal of to coalesce Nasha Ukrayina, his party, under her into a strong opposition has undermined pro-West supporters, making many wonder whose side that man is on anyways.
However, she endures and protests the president’s key policies–extended Black Sea Fleet presence, energy deal with Russia and politization of judicial appointments–and will have a platform once the Rada, parliament, resumes sitting.She ranks in the top 10 of Ukraine’s most influential leaders but needs to win seats in the upcoming local elections and convince Ukraine’s pro-West citizens that she can be trusted.Support frompoliticians like Borys Tarasiuk and Yuriy Lutsenkois important.Nasha Ukrayina, a natural ally, might come on side too once Yushchenko is gone.
And the diaspora?Clearly important in the pro-independence movement, it was badly hood-winked by President Yuschenko’s patriotic words and failed to develop a pro-Ukraine strategy supporting ,instead, a questionable politician.Other than voice concerns — fine but limited– it appears to have little influence on the situation in Ukraine.
Messages about Ukraine “not turning back” continue. Yet Ukraine has already turned back.
Independence Day greetings from Ukraine’s foreign minister and some ambassadors to the diaspora tell the story:thank you for past performance , bread and circuses — embassy events, meetings with officialdom — are welcome.
Messages about Ukraine “not turning back” continue. Yet Ukraine has already turned back. The direction of diaspora relations was evident in the first meeting with the ambassador to the United States, Oleksandr Mostyk.Community representatives raised concerns; the ambassador listened and said little that mattered reminding of the old definition of a diplomat: someone who tells you to go to hell and you look forward to the trip.
The path of Ukraine’s government appears to be set: it is marching to Russia’s drum.And Russia is marching towards “orthodoxy, autocracy and nationalism’, the three-prong strategy articulated by Czar Nicholas I in the mid 19th century favored by intellectuals (Poet Alexander Pushkin said ”All Slavic rivers must run into the Russian sea or it will dry out”), autocrats like Stalin (defend the orthodox faith and motherland by fighting Germany) and nationalists like Vladimir Putin.If Ukraine is unable to withstand the Kremlin behemoth, its force will be felt universally.
In politics, as in physics, actions generate reaction: both the Russian and Soviet empires collapsed. To avoid stressing Ukraine further President Yanukovych needs to slow down and follow a successful model, like Canada’s, in dealing with a giant: Be polite but firm rather than obsequious and self-destructive.
Europe, the United States and others need to pressure Russia to observe set standards–respect for the law, human rights, neighbors’ sovereignty–or miss on trade and modernization opportunities it craves: there will be no dealswith a criminal state and no support for the Olympics there!
This is where the global diaspora has clout.It needs to put pressure on the government to start acting in their self interest rather than Russia’s. Then, hopefully, there will be more to celebrate when Ukraine turns 20.
Oksana Bashuk Hepburn, a political commentator, was a senior policy advisor for the Government of Canada.
