1. The authorities begin to tackle the Tatar issue in Crimea.

Following a meeting with representatives of the Crimean Tatar people, Yanukovych issued a number of government decrees, dedicated to the solution of the problems of resettlement and socio-cultural development of the Crimean Tatar community, a population of some 300,000 deportees relocated by the Soviet Union.

Yanukovych made a strong attempt to ensure that the mechanism for allocating land to the Tatar community remains transparent. In addition to improving transparency and the land allocation mechanism, Yanukovych has asked the Crimean local authorities for plans to be developed to restore certain key historical and cultural Tartar monuments and those of other nationalities deported on ethnic grounds.

It should be noted that while the president’s efforts to resolve Tatar affairs are commendable, Party of Regions and individual members of the Russian government do have significant political and business interests on the peninsula, to which a dissatisfied Tatar people are a latent risk.

People First comment: For some time now, there has been considerable concern that disquiet in the Tatar populations of the Crimean peninsula could become a breeding ground for Muslim fundamentalism, therefore any attempts to resolve their issues must be welcomed and lauded irrespective of any third agenda. These people are some of the most maltreated in the world. They deserve to have their land rights and their national dignity respected within the nation of Ukraine. If there is a political or business advantage to the politicians who resolve their issues, then this is a small price to pay. Let us hope that sound heads prevail and that local greed does not get in the way of a fair and just solution.

2. Yanukovych responds to accusations of freedom of speech violations.

As a result of recent developments regarding the redistribution of television licenses and public awareness of pressure from the security services on the electronic media, Yanukovych has announced that he is not prepared to accept a return to state censorship in Ukraine. He stated that disputes among media groups should be resolved in court without the influence of politics. The president also renewed the controversial topic of public television in Ukraine, scheduling discussions to be held in early September.

At the same time, the International Press Institute and the international non-governmental organization Reporters without Borders noted a deterioration of conditions surrounding freedom of speech in Ukraine. Following their visit, members of Reporters without Borders were expected to publish recommendations, including suggestions for a more open dialogue between media and authorities. Recently, ex-Polish President Lech Walesa wrote to Yanukovych, detailing his deep concern over pressures on freedom of speech from the Ukrainian state. Ukraine ranked 89th out of 175 countries in the Reporters without Borders assessment of freedom of speech in 2009.

People First comment: Once again, Yanukovych has proclaimed his support for freedom of the press in Ukraine. His position would be appreciably more plausible if it were backed up by public action, including ordering the State Security Service of Ukraine to respect freedom of the press. Ukraine had been doing rather well in the Reporters without Borders freedom of the press rankings, rising from the dark position of 138th in the later part of ex-President Leonid Kuchma’s term (1994-2005) to 87th position in 2008. In 2009, Ukraine surprisingly slipped back two positions to 89th. While the positive change is laudable, it should be noted that Estonia ranked 6th, while Russia ranked 153rd out of 175 countries. It will be interesting to see the ranking for 2010 as this will be the most telling measure of all on the state of Ukrainian media freedom.

3. Ukraine’s foreign debt is growing critical

Deputy Prime Minister Sergiy Tigipko announced at a recent briefing that Ukraine’s external debt currently amounts to 316 billion hryvnia (approximately $40 billion), representing 36 percent of gross domestic product. For Ukraine, this figure is critical, as servicing this level of debt is currently beyond perceivable means. Further increase of debt will lead to rapid inflation and devaluation of the national currency.

After receiving the first tranche of the International Monetary Fund’s new standby loan program, Ukraine’s commitments to the fund have increased to $12.6 billion, becoming the second highest indebted country in the world according to this index, after Romania. In addition, according to the World Bank, Ukraine is one of their 10 largest borrowers — to the tune of $3.22 billion. According to experts, the external payments to the IMF will peak in 2013, when Ukraine will have to return $6.3 billion. That will be over 4 percent of gross domestic product. In the case of central authority failure to lead Ukraine out of its economic crisis, the country, many businesses and even households are likely to face bankruptcy.

People First comment: There would appear to be only one word to describe the financial management of past Ukrainian governments and that would be profligate. How can any government create a level of debt so high that in one year they have to repay an amount that is equal to 4 percent of gross domestic product? It’s not too long ago that we saw gas supplies turned off because there was no money to pay Russia and those amounts were appreciably smaller. Are we heading for yet another cold winter in 2013?

We also have to ask where all this money has gone. The state treasury is worryingly depleted; the state pension fund virtually bankrupt and average salary levels are only 18 percent of Ukraine’s immediate neighbors. The new highways have been financed by European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the new bridges by the Turks and the Germans, the international airport reconstruction by the Japanese and new port facilities by private enterprise. There has been little or no investment in the gas pipeline network or the hospitals, schools and universities. There are few new social housing projects and precious little maintenance of the existing stock so how have successive governments managed to not only spend every tax hryvnia, but also run up a debt of $40 billion. Perhaps the IMF and the World Bank should make public accountability and financial transparency two new terms for any future loans as it is the Ukrainian tax payer who is going to have to foot the bill.

4. Political parties start preparations for local elections

On the cusp of the Oct. 31 local authority elections, Ukraine will for the first time see electoral primaries – a system common in the West for selecting candidates from a party list. Only two political parties have expressed intentions to take up this policy – The Batkivshchyna Party headed by ex-Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko and the Strong Ukraine Party headed by Sergiy Tigipko. Strong Ukraine actually goes so far as to not only provide candidacy opportunities for party members, but also extends its invitation to any citizen of Ukraine. Expert opinion labels this as populism, since even Western primaries are only ever held from a single pre-defined party list. However, it is possible that by adopting this system, Tigipko and his political force intend to draw alliances with local business elites.

At the same time, the Batkivshchyna Party requires an internal reshuffle after their defeat in the presidential elections. The party may indeed intend to use the results of these primaries as a platform to launch an electoral campaign. The fact that these primaries have been adopted by only two of the major political players suggests that the majority of local elections participants do not yet determined their election strategy and are awaiting the completion of pre-election period. The Party of Regions however, has on its side a great wealth of administrative resource as well as the recent changes to electoral law.

People First comment: The local government elections of Oct. 31 are fundamentally flawed and their result, irrespective of who wins, will signify a very dark chapter in Ukrainian democracy. The ruling powers do not have the right to control the candidacy of any person unless they are disqualified as a result of mental illness or criminal record. While some may consider Tigiko’s offer to ordinary citizens to campaign under his banner as populist, it is considerably better than the alternative and may well result in some independent candidates getting elected. Clearly the whole election system in Ukraine needs a major overhaul as the system gets more and more repressive with each election. While in the early years of Ukrainian independence there was a real desire to create a wholly Ukrainian election system, what has evolved may have the vestige of a free and fair vote, but it says very little for democracy. Local elections are about local issues. The election of the mayors under the former system was one of the few examples of real democracy in action. However, many mayors complained that while they had a mandate from their electorate, they were unable to achieve much because their councils, who were in the main party nominees, were too tied up in political gamesmanship to achieve a great deal. As a result, many mayors were unable to keep their election promises. The new system is even more politicized. Therefore, do not expect too much progress in urban development.

Viktor Tkachuk is chief executive officer of the People First Foundation, which seeks to strengthen Ukrainian democracy. The organization’s website is: www.peoplefirst.org.ua and the e-mail address is: [email protected]