For the most part the results will be predictable. The east will largely vote for the Party of Regions candidates. The west and center will vote for candidates from the national democratic forces. However, there is one race that encapsulates the struggle for the heart and soul of Ukraine: the mayoral race in Odesa. Odesa has historically been a unique city with a history of colorful elections –and this election will be no different. Odesa is the only major “blue” city in Ukraine with an “orange” mayor. More precisely, the same city that gave President Yanukovych 70% of the vote earlier this year, gave their mayor, representing national democrats,55% of the vote in the last local election. This is largely due to the popularity of the Odesa Mayor, Eduard Hurvits.

Hurvits was the first democratically elected mayor of Odesa in 1994. He modernized the city and won overwhelmingly in his re-election bid in 1998. However, then President Kuchma saw Hurvits’ popularity as a threat and orchestrated a kangaroo court ruling (in a completely different oblast) that de-registered the victorious Hurvits AFTER he won the election. Hurvits preserved though and ran again in 2002. In an election marred with massive fraud, he initially failed in his comeback bid. However, following the Orange Revolution, a local court ruled that the fraud was so immense in 2002, that Hurvits actually won the election and immediately re-instated him in May 2005. Since that time, Odesa has experienced a renaissance and revitalization: roads have been fixed, hot water is available in summer, the funicular was finished and many other successes.

It appears such successes are dangerous to the Party of Regions though as they have pulled out all the stops to elect their appointed candidate Oleksiy Kostyushyev, the Head of the Anti-Monopoly Committee of Ukraine. Though Kostyushyev failed in two previous mayoral bids in Odesa, the Party of Regions’ arrogance leads them to believe they simply need to appoint a candidate and the electorate will obediently follow. However Odesa citizens are independent minded and prefer to think for themselves and vote their conscience. As a result, a symbol has emerged of the public’s resistance to the Party of Regions anointed candidate. In Ukrainian traditions, when a lady is asked for her hand in marriage, the only polite way to say “no” is to give the man a pumpkin instead as a consolation prize. Earlier this week, Odesa citizens began leaving pumpkins at the offices of the Party of Regions to express their polite refusal to marry their city. There is a reason why Odesa is known for its’ humor.

As a result, the Party of Regions is growing increasingly frustrated by polls (even from Russian sources) showing their anointed candidate trailing by more than 10 points. It is possible to steal 3-5% of the vote through fraudulent means which are largely undetected by observers. Stealing more than 10% of the vote is so blatant, that it enrages citizens and pushes them into the streets to protect their rights –just as in 2004. Thus, if the election in Odesa is largely free and fair, the national democratic candidate, Eduard Hurvits will defeat the candidate from the Party of Regions that is being force-fed to the voters of Odesa. Ironically, a loss for the Party of Regions in their usual stronghold of Odesa will be the best indicator that –just as Ukraine is not dead yet- democracy and fair elections in Ukraine are not dead yet either.

Editor’s note: Mark Foehr has worked in democracy promotion in the former Soviet Union since 2000 and has observed previous elections in Ukraine. This opinion is re-printed with his permission.