Even if ex-Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko is somehow allowed to run in next year’s parliamentary election, other roadblocks are emerging that raise fears about whether the 2012 contest will be free and fair.
The most obvious blow to a democratic election would be if Tymoshenko, on trial for exceeding authority and facing up to 10 years in prison, is found guilty of the charges and banned from taking part in the elections. Her faction is the second largest in parliament and, according to the polls, also the second most popular.
The elimination of Tymoshenko alone would be enough for many in Europe to dismiss the elections as undemocratic, a severe setback for Ukraine’s hopes to integrate more closely with the European Union.
Aside from Tymoshenko, however, election experts say other problems are emerging.
Ukraine has a history of repeatedly changing its election rules ahead of votes – both presidential and parliamentary – to skew results in favor of political forces holding power.
Continuing on with this much-criticized tradition, the government’s parliamentary election bill is scheduled to be debated in the Verkhovna Rada this month. If adopted into law, it could give an edge to President Viktor Yanukovych’s Party of Regions, allowing it along with subservient parties to remain dominant in the nation’s next legislature despite their plunging popularity and polls that show opposition forces standing a chance gain a majority.
Overall, the bill in its current form appears likely to reduce opportunities for “fair and equal competition among electoral contestants” and is being drafted in a “non-inclusive, non-transparent and non-accountable” manner, said Kristina Wilfore, who heads the US-funded National Democratic Institute in Ukraine.
Wilfore’s NDI and the International Republican Institute, another American pro-democratic institution, both withdrew from the president’s draft law working group on March 17, citing flaws in the process.
Major and minor opposition parties, including those not holding seats in parliament, as well as civil society groups, have complained that the law is being drafted unilaterally by the president without their input.
“There is not one European country in which the president defines the electoral system,” said EU Ambassador Jose Teixeira during a lecture on Sept. 28 at the Kyiv Mohyla Academy.
In a separate statement on Sept. 28, Teixeira lamented the unilateral process of drafting the election law.
“As we enter the final phase of our Association Agreement negotiations, the European Union wishes to underline the high importance it attaches to electoral reform in Ukraine. Any new election law in Ukraine should be based on a solid consultation process, including experts, civil society and opposition, to ensure that it stands the test of time,” he said.
The government’s draft election law bill foresees a mixed election system with half of the legislature’s 450 seats being allocated via a single geographic mandate, with first-past-the post constituencies. The other half will be decided through nationwide proportional representation of political parties who choose their candidates.
Minor parties will also have difficulty because of proposed increases in the electoral threshold to 5 percent, the elimination of the right of blocs to contest seats and the removal of the voting choice “against all,” among other changes.
Opposition leaders such as Serhiy Sobolev, a member of the ex-prime minister’s Bloc of Yulia Tymoshenko minority faction, argue that there is no reason to change Ukraine’s existing election legislation. The two last parliamentary elections held under existing rules were recognized internationally as the most democratic ever in Ukraine’s history, he said in a recent TV appearance. In contrast, Sobolev said that parliamentary elections held a decade ago with a mixed system were generally seen as flawed and failing to meet democratic standards.
Justice Minister Oleksandr Lavrynovych said on TV Sept. 26 that President Viktor Yanukovych chose the electoral system and that his position on the matter won’t change.
“If you’d like to ask which electoral system will the president of Ukraine propose? He has already answered this question a long time ago. He’ll propose to parliament the draft law which foresees a mixed electoral system,” said Lavrynovych on ICTV.
“Will the president’s proposal change with regard the electoral system? The answer is no,” the justice minister said.
This is the fourth time that the parliamentary election law is undergoing change since Ukraine’s independence in 1991.
“This will be a ‘fabrication of the majority’ to help the ruling party [of Regions],” said Vadym Karasiov, director of the Global Strategies Institute, a Kyiv policy center.
The political analyst said single mandate districts in past elections, including the recent 2010 local and regional elections, are vulnerable to electoral manipulation where vote buying is rampant, and administrative government resources are used to favor particular candidates, including court decisions.
“There will be doubts of legitimacy if the (parliamentary election) law is changed,” said Karasiov. “They want more power and will preserve it instead of saving face in front of Europeans.”
Karasiov predicted that whatever seats the Party of Regions doesn’t scoop up in the nationwide constituency, it will make up for “in the single mandate races” as in 2002, when the pro-government Za Yedyna Ukrayina became the main force in parliament under Leonid Kuchma’s presidency.
Last week the European Council’s Venice Commission, an advisory body comprising of experts in constitutional law and the International Foundation for Electoral Systems, released their preliminary analyses and review of the election bill.
They both cautioned changing the law yet again to avoid deepening the public’s trust towards the electoral system.
“Such frequent changes of the electoral system do not contribute to the stability of the electoral legal framework and electoral system,” the IFES review warned.
Civil society members present at the Sept. 27 working group meeting said the body didn’t take into account the “principal issues” that the international organizations addressed.
“The proposals and arguments of IFES and the (future) final assessment of the Venice Commission will most likely not become a topic of consideration of the working group,” noted Svitlana Kononchuk of the Ukrainian Center for Independent Political Research.
Viktoria Siumar, head of the Institute for Mass Information, told the Kyiv Post that the election law is being written behind closed doors because the “government is in crisis” and that pro-presidential politicians don’t want visit this issue and “search for new models” to develop Ukraine.
Kyiv Post staff writer Mark Rachkevych can be reached at [email protected].
