The imprisonment of ex-Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko removes from the political stage Ukraine’s most popular and vigorous opposition politician.
She called for opposition forces to unite, speaking in court as she was handed a seven-year sentence for abuse of office on Oct. 11. But scenes outside showed the opposition parties’ divisions and disorganization and the many challenges ahead.
The multicolored tents pitched during the four-month trial – here the green of Arseniy Yatseniuk’s Front of Changes, there the yellow of Anatoliy Gritsenko’s Civic Position – point to the disparate nature of opposition forces. They were only able to muster some 3,000 supporters in protest, many fewer than anticipated.
Analysts said opposition leaders would now be competing to secure increased support, but predicted that none of the pretenders had the same charisma and political fighting skills as Tymoshenko.
To be sure, she may be released in the coming weeks, as President Viktor Yanukovych has hinted that her alleged offence may be decriminalized by legal reforms.
But with no guarantees, other leading opposition figures were moving quickly to boost their profiles.
Yatseniuk, a former parliament speaker who in recent months has closed the gap on Tymoshenko in polls, called for a collection of signatures in a movement called “Ukraine Without Yanukovych.”
“It’s an attempt to raise people; it’s an attempt to show real actions,” Yatseniuk told journalists, adding that the issue of finding a new opposition leader is “not currently on the agenda.”
“It is not easy to find another opposition politician like Tymoshenko,” said Vadym Karasiov, a political analyst in Kyiv.
Karasiov believes that if Tymoshenko stays in prison her longtime right-hand man Oleksandr Turchynov will head her Batkivschyna (Fatherland) party
and lead it in parliamentary elections next autumn.
Meanwhile, some critics say this party and the second-largest parliament faction BYuT-Batkivschyna couldn’t survive long without its figurehead and will be torn up by internal fights.
“If Tymoshenko stays in prison for a long time then Batkivschyna will start collapsing,” said political analyst Viktor Nebozhenko.
Analysts and opposition insiders said the weakening of Tymoshenko party by the loss of its leader and internal conflicts could see some Batkivshyna supporters could switch allegiance to Yatseniuk.
Another wing of the Batkivschyna party is represented by Natalia Korolevska, who like Tymoshenko comes from the east of Ukraine.
In recent weeks she has increased her profile, representing the party at the Yalta European Strategy conference in September and speaking to protesting farmers near the parliament last week.
She heads the influential parliament committee on industrial, regulatory policy and entrepreneurship and enjoys loyalty of the party businessmen.
In comments to the Kyiv Post, Korolevska denied seeing herself in place of Tymoshenko, saying the opposition was experiencing a tough time now.
“It’s a big test for opposition. A test of the willingness of her leaders to sacrifice their own ambitions in order to achieve a result,” she said, adding that the aim is Tymoshenko’s freedom.
From outside the party, Yatseniuk and world boxing champion Vitali Klitschko are seen as the leaders with most potential.
Yatseniuk, despite previous clashes with Tymoshenko, has made himself visible in opposing her trial and detention.
She has previously dismissed him as “pocket opposition” to Yanukovych.
“Yatseniuk is the only one who is interested in the longest possible staying of Tymoshenko in prison,” analyst Nebozhenko said.
Recent polls show support for Yatseniuk creeping upward, as well as improving ratings for Klitschko, leader of the UDAR party.
Unlike Yatseniuk, Klitschko never appeared in court during Tymoshenko trial, but did announce that he was cutting short his training to return to Kyiv in August in a show of support. Since then, he has sought to add some substance to his tough-guy image by taking on new advisers, including leading public relations firm PBN Company.
He is seen by many as a potential Kyiv mayor, although it is unclear when elections for that post will take place.
With so many different parties jostling for position, analysts forecast that the upcoming elections will cause opposition parties to forget all the calls for unity and fight fiercely for seats in parliament.
Karasiov said the absence of Tymoshenko and political infighting could “weaken the oppositional potential” but doubts it could degenerate Ukraine’s opposition to the state of its counterparts in Russia or Belarus, where it is completely sidelined.
“To achieve this Yanukovych would have to be another Putin or Lukashenko,” he said. “Or at least have a [popularity] rating as high as they have.”
Kyiv Post staff writer Oksana Grytsenko can be reached at [email protected].
