BRUSSELS – The criminal proceedings against former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko will continue to influence the EU's approach in the matter of signing and ratification of the association agreement, irrespective of the outcome of the upcoming parliamentary elections, expert of the European Policy Center Amanda Paul has said.
In her article "To sign or not to sign? That’s the EU-Ukraine question" published in Brussels on Monday, the European expert said that the association agreement may be technically ready for ratification in six or eight months. These processes depend on the way the parliamentary elections will take place.
"Tymoshenko situation is likely to continue to influence the EU’s approach. This will be most evident in the case of a victory for the ruling Party of Regions. At the same time, there still will be every chance of the Association Agreement being signed, it may prove difficult to get it ratified by all member states, as some countries – notably Germany, which has a history of viewing its relations with Ukraine through the prism of Moscow – have seemingly made Tymoshenko’s release a precondition of ratification," the analyst said.
Paul also described the scenario, in which Tymoshenko would not be able to take part in the parliamentary elections. "There is still a remote possibility that Tymoshenko may be released, possibly for health reasons. However, in such a scenario it is unlikely that she would take part in the elections. Paradoxically, it may therefore prove more beneficial to have her take part, rather than sitting on the sidelines in a somewhat martyred position," she wrote.
The expert believes that if the elections are declared fraudulent, then the EU may refuse to sign the association agreement. "In this scenario, the finalized agreement may be left to gather dust until the political situation changes.
At the same time, she believes the EU-Ukraine relations are unlikely to become deadlocked. According to her, the EU’s European Neighborhood Policy (ENP) describes Ukraine as a ‘priority partner’, and unlike all the other countries in the Eastern Partnership Policy (EaP), trade between the EU and Ukraine in 2011 was worth some EUR 500 billion. In areas such as energy, transport, mobility and the fight against organized crime, relations continue to intensify.
"Ukraine signed the EU’s Energy Community Treaty and is negotiating a visa-free regime with the bloc, both of which have forced Kyiv to carry out a significant number of important reforms. Ukraine is also a key regional actor, and plays an important and constructive role in efforts to end the Transdniestrian conflict," the expert said.
According to Paul, the EU actually has nothing to lose by signing the association agreement with Ukraine, given that it contains no concrete promise of membership and leaves it up to individual member states to decide if and when to ratify it.
"Ratification may take months or years, but at least it gives the EU a useful tool with which to engage Ukraine, stimulate the reform process and push the country on issues such as the rule of law and judicial reform. The Association Agreement will have a particularly positive impact on the business climate, since it provides EU and Ukrainian businesses with common rules and standards, thereby enhancing the predictability and financial security of investments in Ukraine," the expert said.
She recalled, the part of the agreement dealing with the formation of a deep and comprehensive free trade area only requires to be ratified by the European Parliament and Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada to become operational. "Making the deep and comprehensive free trade area operational will go some way to keeping Ukraine on the EU track, will be good for business and will help to reinforce the position of the pro-European camp in its government and parliament," she said.
According to the expert, the EU and Ukraine have reached yet another crossroads. "Unfortunately, due to divisions among member states over Ukraine’s EU membership aspirations, the EU has never developed a coherent strategy for the country, rather maintaining a short-sighted ‘the door is neither open nor closed’ policy. In the pre-election period, the EU needs to develop a far more nuanced strategy. The EU needs to continue to insist that Ukraine take steps to improve democratic standards, including insisting on the systematic application of the rule of law, and that opposition and civil society play an important role in policymaking. However, while the EU is right to monitor the Tymoshenko case (and others like it), continuing to view relations solely through the prism of Tymoshenko would appear to be a grave error of judgment and a ‘lose lose’ for both sides, serving only to increase instability and unpredictably," Paul concluded.
