The spirit of the Orange revolution may be stirring once again.
On the cusp of a decisive presidential vote this weekend, Yulia Tymoshenko, heroine of the massive popular protests that overturned rigged elections five years ago threatened to mobilize supporters in the streets, accusing her rival of trying to steal the presidency.
But this time around, as disillusionment with the Orange movement runs high, it may not be enough to derail pro-Russian opposition leader Viktor Yanukovych.
In a surprising twist, Prime Minister Tymoshenko’s one-time ally in the 2005 revolt — current president Viktor Yushchenko — signed a law Thursday that she alleged gives her rival an edge by tinkering with election oversight rules.
Supporters of Yanukovych, foe of the pro-Western Orange movement, pushed through the election code changes Wednesday, claiming they were needed to prevent an effort by Tymoshenko to sabotage the vote.
He appears to be gaining ground in a contest that pits the European aspirations of western Ukraine against eastern Ukraine’s fraternal ties to Moscow.
On Thursday, Yanukovych derided Tymoshenko’s threats to send supporters into the streets as a "sign of weakness," accusing her of indulging in "dirt, lies and slander." Her accusations were the desperate actions of a candidate facing certain defeat, he said.
Yanukovych, the champion of Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine, won the presidency in 2004 only to see his supporters accused of massive fraud and hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians take to the streets in protest. He was later stripped of his victory by the courts and beaten by Yushchenko in a rerun of the presidential vote.
But the euphoria eventually gave way to deep disappointment: Yushchenko’s term was marked by squabbling with Tymoshenko and political trench warfare with parliament — leading to years of political paralysis.
Yushchenko got only 5.5 percent of the vote in the Jan. 17 first round of presidential voting. Rather than throw his support behind the Orange candidate, he has called on his supporters to vote "against all," an option on Ukrainian ballots, in Sunday’s election.
If Yanukovych wins this time around, he is expected to reverse many of his predecessor’s pro-Western policies, although how far and how fast he might go in embracing Moscow isn’t clear.
On Wednesday, parliament passed a Yanukovych-backed amendment to the election law repealing a requirement that representatives of both candidates be present to supervise vote counting at polling stations.
Jens-Hagen Eschenbaecher, a spokesman for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s election monitoring body, pointed out that the amendments won’t affect the outcome of the vote if both camps act in good faith, as they did in the first round of voting Feb. 17.
But Tymoshenko warned that under the amendments, Yanukovych could bar or eject her representatives from electoral boards in Yanukovych strongholds, opening the door for ballot-box stuffing and fraudulent vote counts.
"Already, my representatives in two district election commissions have been thrown out in violation of the regulations," Tymoshenko told reporters. "In these commissions, the Party of Regions and candidate Yanukovych have taken full control."
With characteristic dramatic flourish, she denounced parliament’s vote in apocalyptic terms. "Fair elections have come to an end," she solemnly declared Thursday.
Yanukovych said that the changes in the law were needed to prevent Tymoshenko’s observers from sabotaging the vote by boycotting the count at the precinct and district level. His Party of Regions issued a statement called Tymoshenko’s charges "nothing but a blatant lie."
Apparently, though, neither side trusts the other in Sunday’s ballot.
Tadeusz Iwinski, vice chairman of the observation mission from the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe criticized parliament’s scramble to change the election code so late in the contest.
"This move is of course against all the rules," he said. "It is a never-ending story in Ukraine to have these constant changes in election law. It is a vicious cycle and a chaotic one."
He said that if the election is close, the loser could cite the change as an excuse to challenge the results. "It could be like Florida in the USA," he said, referring to the hotly disputed 2000 U.S. elections.
Some analysts say Tymoshenko seems to have lost the support of parliament to Yanukovych’s forces.
Deputies last week ousted Tymoshenko’s minister of the interior, the arm of the government responsible for responding to any postelection unrest. She promptly appointed the sacked official as acting interior minister, in a desperate bid to maintain control of the agency.
There is also an unresolved dispute between the two camps over which of two judges is the legitimate head of the High Administrative Court, which will rule on any election challenges.
Despite Tymoshenko’s warnings, analysts say the chances for prolonged mass protests among the disillusioned population are slight.
"A repeat of the 2004 events are impossible," said Vladimir Fesenko, the head of Ukraine’s Penta Center for Applied Political Research. "The only people that will take part in street protests will be hired hands and a small number of supporters."
Fesenko added that Tymoshenko has been outmaneuvered, pointing out that Yanukovych’s Part of Regions has taken control of the institutions that will prove key in giving an official seal of approval the vote.
"Yanukovych has created the infrastructure for victory, having gained control over the Central Election Commission, key courts and destroyed the Orange majority in parliament," he said.
Vadim Karasev, director of the Institute of Global Strategies, said Tymoshenko is "behaving like a loser."
"With every day that passes, Tymoshenko is letting the initiative slip out of her hands," he said. "The situation taking shape is the worst possible scenario for Tymoshenko. The Orange coalition has been destroyed."
