ALMATY - Dosym Satpayev, a Kazakh political analyst and the director of the Risk Assessment Group, thinks that today's mass disorders in Kyrgyzstan have been provoked by the immature and awkward policy of the Kyrgyz authorities and that there are not any foreign special services behind the disorders.
"Can the political developments in Kyrgyzstan be regarded as quite unexpected? I do not think so. The country that once experienced a violent change of power is likely to follow the same path. It is only a matter of choosing the right moment. So, today’s situation is not accidental but quite logical and expectable," Mr Satpayev said in his article published by the newspaper Littera on Friday.
In his opinion, the former president of Kyrgyzstan, Askar Akayev, made a mistake when only focusing on political projects to create the image of "the most democratic republic in the region" only to get the foreign creditors to give money, which, by the way, did not help improve the lifestyle of the ordinary people.
"However, history teaches us that a robust political house cannot be built on a weak economic foundation when the people are still poor and have nothing to lose. The situation has not changed very much while Bakiyev (President Kurmanbek Bakiyev – Interfax-Kazakshtan) has been the president," the political analyst believes.
"I do not think there is a foreign special service behind here (the developments in Kyrgyzstan – Interfax-Kazakhstan) as the social explosions both in 2005 and 2010 were detonated by the internal factors and were not brought in by an external foe," Mr Satpayev said.
According to him, Kyrgyzstan does not have much of a choice. "The country will either follow the spiral development pattern as most of the countries in the world, or will keep going round the circle as many of the African and Latin American states where military coups and putsches are quite usual," the analyst said.
"For instance, Ukraine has chosen the first option. Only a few years after the "orange revolution" which led to a change of power the country was able to hold more or less competitive presidential elections for the power to go from Victor Yushchenko to Victor Yanukovitch," Mr Satpayev added.
Foreign intervention in Kyrgyzstan is only possible of the situation goes out of control when the political confrontation may turn into violent regional confrontation. "This will lead to a threatening domino effect which may destabilize the entire Central Asian region where the tension has been boiling up for a long time," the analyst said.
