LONDON, Aug 5 (Reuters) - Russia's drought-hit wheat crop is expected to total 46.5 million tonnes this year, a fall of about one-quarter from one of the world's top wheat exporters compared with 2009, a Reuters snap poll showed on Thursday.
Neighbouring Kazakhstan is seen suffering an even steeper output decline of 30 percent to 11.7 million tonnes after a record crop in 2009 while Ukraine should see a 13 percent drop to 18.1 million, median estimates in the global survey showed.
Last year’s Russian wheat crop was 61.7 million tonnes, Kazakhstan’s 16.5 million and Ukraine’s 20.9 million, the International Grains Council said.
The poll of 18 analysts and traders had estimates ranging from 42.0 million to 55.5 million tonnes, while the International Grains Council last week forecast the Russian wheat crop would total 50.0 million,
"There’s no doubt it is a disaster in some areas, not only for wheat but also for coarse grains such as barley," said Ron Storey, the principal of crop forecasting firm Australian Crop Forecasters based in Melbourne.
The rapidly deteriorating crop outlook in the Black Sea region led Russia to announce on Thursday it would temporarily ban grain exports.
A spokesman for Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said on Thursday the ban, the first such move in 11 years, would come into force on August 15.
Wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade have climbed nearly 70 percent since the end of June and set a 23-month high of $7.85-3/4 a bushel on Thursday.
Glencore’s Russian unit, the International Grain Company, said on Tuesday that Russian wheat exports could fall to 5-8 million tonnes, while exporters could default on shipments of up to 1 million tonnes.
Last year Russia exported 18.3 million tonnes of wheat, a total only exceeded by the United States and the European Union, according to International Grains Council figures.
"I believe this buying frenzy is probably overdone and I think the market is building in a worst-case scenario, and nobody will even say what the worst-case scenario is," said Dan Matermach, Ag Services Director for Doane Advisory Services in St. Louis.
The impact of the drought could reach beyond this year’s harvest, threatening to shrink global supplies in 2011, if winter wheat germination is hampered ahead of the looming Russian frosts.
"Should the drought in the Russian Federation continue, it could pose problems for winter plantings in that country with potentially serious implications for world wheat supplies in 2011/12," the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation warned on Wednesday.
The poll had a median estimate for Kazakhstan’s crop of 11.7 million with a range of 7.0 million to 14.5 million.
The IGC last week put the Kazakh crop at 13.5 million but the country’s agriculture ministry is less optimistic with a forecast of 10 million.
Drought has been a less important issue in Ukraine where the poll had a median estimate of 18.1 million tonnes and a range of 16.0 million to 19.0 million.
"We see a wheat harvest of about 17.5 million tonnes. The drop is linked to weather conditions partly because rain got to the harvest when it was being brought in, partly because in certain regions there was drought and the yield was down," said Volodymyr Lapa, an analyst for the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club.
