The new WikiLeaks report discloses the diplomatic cable from the U.S. Embassy in Baku to the U.S. State Department dated Nov. 13, 2007. The report describes the meeting between the U.S Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Daniel Fried and the Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev.
In a portion about Ukraine, Aliyev notes how Yushchenko forced early parliamentary elections in 2007 "by breaking the law," and how the Orange Revolution hero squandered his popular support during his presidency, leaving Ukraine as a "country is on hold, with no strategic direction."
Read the cable here.
GUAM – UKRAINE
14. (C) A/S Fried said that GUAM has great potential, but its success depends in part on a strong Ukraine. Unfortunately, Ukraine has been "weak and paralyzed" for over 18 months. He didn’t care whether the government was "orange or orange-blue;" a strong and independent Ukrainian Government would be good not just for Ukraine and GUAM, but for the U.S. If Ukraine becomes a strong force within GUAM, "then Moldova will follow." Aliyev said that Yushchenko "can’t run a country with 15 percent support." However, Aliyev said that Yushchenko probably assumes that as long as there is no government he can remain president, whereas once a government is formed he becomes a lame duck. Fried repeated that the U.S. will support any democratically elected Ukrainian Government. Aliyev said that Yushcenko wanted "someone neutral" as head of the Ukrainian Government, but that this wouldn’t happen. Fried said that Yushcenko’s greatest tactical strength was shown in forcing early elections ("by breaking the law," President Aliyev interjected), but that now "the country is on hold, with no strategic direction." Aliyev said that when Yushchenko was elected he had tremendous support, but had "squandered it."
15. (C) In response to Fried’s question as to whether Yushchenko’s problems stemmed from poor health, Aliyev said that Yushchenko had told him he’d had health problems since being poisoned. Fried said he had hoped that Yushchenko would "spring forward" after having called for new elections, but it hadn’t happened. He needs to build a genuine mandate. Ukraine’s paralysis means that Russia can ignore the Balkans and pressure Georgia, whereas it could not ignore a strong Ukraine. Whereas chaos might tactically help Yushchenko, his popularity is declining.
16. (C) Aliyev agreed that Azerbaijan needed a strong Ukraine in GUAM and that a failed Ukraine "would leave a bad image in the world." Azerbaijan has tried to buttress GUAM by participating in various energy and transportation projects, to include the Odessa-Brody project, where Azerbaijan just took a share in the Sarmatia joint venture to fund a feasibility study on its expansion. However, in 2004 the Ukraine FM had been saying that "Azerbaijan doesn’t have the oil" for Odessa-Brody, and now Azerbaijan needed to know Ukraine’s position on this pipeline, since without Ukraine support the project wouldn’t work. The GOAJ was also seeking political guarantees from the EU before going too far on Odessa-Brody.
