Spain's wealthy and influential northeastern Catalonia region is set for elections likely to oust the incumbent Socialist party in a rebuke that could presage a national trend.
Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero’s party is expected to suffer losses in Sunday’s ballot as a reaction to the country’s slumping economy, a setback that could be mirrored in nationwide municipal elections and 13 regional government ballots in May.
More than five million Catalans — in a country of 47 million — are eligible to vote for regional leaders who will take up 135 local parliament seats. Polls predict a swing to the conservative nationalist Convergence and Union party, known as CiU.
Defeat for Catalan Socialists, who have governed two terms in coalition with two other parties, would be a blow to Zapatero, who must face national elections in 2012.
Catalonia, whose capital city is Barcelona, with a total population of more than seven million inhabitants, has its own language and ancient culture. It is one of Spain’s 17 semiautonomous regions and is responsible for one fifth of the country’s production.
Catalans have long sought an independent voice, but are more likely in this poll to show their disapproval of Zapatero’s handling of the financial crisis.
A recent survey by the Center for Sociological Research said Catalan Socialists could lose four of their current 37 seats, while Artur Mas’ CiU may go from 48 to 59 — nine short of a majority, opening the door to coalition scenarios.
Catalonia suffered some embarrassing moments under Socialist rule, with problems blighting its transport system and electricity and water supplies.
The region also suffered a major rebuff this summer when Spain’s Constitutional Court diluted a new charter giving the region more self-rule, most importantly rejecting its bid to refer to itself as a nation.
The charter had been promised by Zapatero and protests against the ruling drew a million people onto Barcelona’s streets. An Opina poll said 42 percent of Catalans support independence, up 12 percentage points up from 2003.
