KHARTOUM, Dec 12 (Reuters) - Lawyers for a Sudanese campaign group on Sunday launched a legal bid to halt the country's referendum for southern independence, accusing organisers of mishandling the process.
Southern leaders dismissed the legal challenge, saying it had been stage-managed by the north’s ruling National Congress Party (NCP) to sabotage the referendum, which is scheduled to take place in just four weeks’ time on Jan. 9.
The new case will stoke already heightened tensions around the vote. There are already fears that a disruption of the vote could lead to a new conflict between the north and south.
Here are some possible scenarios.
REFERENDUM DELAYED
Organisers are already hard-pressed to meet the deadline for the referendum, promised in a 2005 peace deal that ended decades of north-south civil war. Unless they are dismissed quickly, legal challenges would make a delay almost inevitable
Any forced delay would spark a furious reaction from southerners who will see it as a northern plot to keep control of their oil and deny them their rights.
There would be a real risk of street clashes between northerners and southerners in the capital Khartoum and an escalation of military tensions along the border. The nightmare scenario would be that fighting reignites a full north-south conflict.
Even if this current legal challenge fails, there is the possibility of lawsuits emerging during and after the vote. Strict timetables set out in the laws guiding the referendum have been already been thrown out the window. Unless those laws are amended, the results are legally vulnerable.
Southerners may still accept a short delay if it is clear that it is purely for logistical reasons. Preparations are far behind schedule and organisers only recently chose the company to print the ballot papers.
People from the disputed oil-producing Abyei region were promised a simultaneous plebiscite on whether to join the north or south, but preparations for that vote are deadlocked. It is now looking increasingly likely that vote will either be delayed or cancelled, leaving both sides with the difficult task of settling Abyei’s future status through negotiations.
VOTE ONLY IN THE SOUTH
South Sudanese President Salva Kiir told visiting Security Council envoys in October the south might resort to holding its own referendum, without the approval of the north, if northern leaders tried to disrupt the vote.
The SPLM has also said the southern parliament could vote on the future of the region, if no plebiscite looked likely to happen.
The north would almost certainly reject either move and could respond with military and economic measures. It is also far from clear whether the international community would accept a southern-run vote.
The U.N. ambassadors did not reject the idea but made it clear they did not want a unilateral declaration of independence by the south. Kiir promised that would not happen.
RETURN TO VIOLENCE
It is not in the economic interests of either side to return to conflict.
But the referendum is highly emotional for both northerners and southerners and the lack of clarity on the status of citizenship, wealth-sharing, the north-south border and the oil areas are all potential flashpoints.
If the two parties cannot resolve these disputes they could provoke clashes between local communities. These could drag north and south back to war again and disrupt surrounding countries.
The SPLM has already accused the northern army of trying to provoke a fight by bombing inside southern territory in November and December. The north has accused the south of harbouring Darfur rebels, calling it a "declaration of war". Both sides deny each other’s accusations.
REFERENDUM GOES AHEAD ON TIME
Sudanese politicians often use brinkmanship to get an edge in negotiations and leave crucial decisions to the last minute.
It is possible that both sides will settle their differences just in time for the Jan. 9 vote and go on to accept the result of a rushed and imperfect plebiscite — if only to avoid a return to war and keep the oil flowing.
After the expected vote for independence, Sudan would then enter a six-month transition period until July 9, 2011, to prepare for the official creation of two new countries.
