Pakistan's prime minister on Monday tried to keep his government from collapsing after a key party said it was quitting the ruling coalition, leaving the government short of majority support in parliament.
The Muttahida Qaumi Movement, the second largest party in the ruling coalition, said Sunday it would join the opposition because of fuel price hikes, inflation and the ruling Pakistan People’s Party’s general poor performance.
The defection deprives Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani’s government of the 172 seats needed for a majority in the 342-member parliament. That means the fractured opposition parties — if they can work together — could sponsor a no-confidence vote in Gilani, which if passed by a majority of lawmakers would remove the prime minister from office and possibly trigger early elections.
The political crisis could distract the government from its counterterrorism alliance with the U.S., which wants Pakistan to crack down on al-Qaida and Taliban insurgents on its soil, though security is largely the purview of Pakistan’s powerful military. The turmoil also all but guarantees lawmakers will make no progress anytime soon on solving the economic problems that have frustrated ordinary Pakistanis and forced the country to rely on $11 billion in loans from the International Monetary Fund.
With his job on the line, Gilani was scrambling Monday to secure the support of opposition groups to avoid a no-confidence vote. He met with representatives of the biggest opposition party, the Pakistan Muslim League-N, as well the second largest opposition group, the Pakistan Muslim League-Q.
But it was unclear whether Gilani had made any headway as of late Monday afternoon. One opposition leader said his party had nothing against the prime minister, but stressed that it could only support Gilani’s government if it improved its performance.
"Today we gave support with a condition, and that condition is the real issues of the people are addressed," said Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain of the PML-Q.
Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari is the head of the People’s Party. His position as president would likely be safe even if the People’s Party loses its majority in Parliament, but to avoid the party’s loss of power, analysts said, Zardari may be willing to replace Gilani with a prime minister more acceptable to the other parties. There have been occasional reports of rifts between Gilani and Zardari, though their offices have denied it.
The MQM said Sunday it was quitting the ruling coalition after the government announced hikes in gas and heating oil prices on New Year’s Eve.
"The petrol bomb the government has dropped on the people of Pakistan has forced our party to part ways with such insane decisions," said Faisal Subzwari, an MQM leader.
The MQM filed an application on Monday to formally switch to the opposition. Its Cabinet ministers already tendered their resignations last week. Another, smaller party, the Jamiat Ulema Islam, announced in December it would switch to the opposition and its application is under review. Without the two, the ruling coalition will fall about a dozen seats short of the 172 needed to keep a majority.
Analysts said Gilani had only weeks, if not days, to keep his coalition intact or scrape together a new one. However, he appeared to have a bit of breathing room because there is no guarantee the fragmented opposition will be able to close ranks and oust Gilani. The MQM and the PML-N, headed by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, have frosty relations.
Sharif’s party also would be loath to try to take the reins of a new government at such a difficult time, said Hasan Askari-Rizvi, a political analyst.
The IMF has demanded that Pakistan significantly reform its economy, including deep cuts to its deficit, in order to keep the loan program going. The international assistance took on added importance after the massive floods of late 2010 that affected some 20 million people.
But the economic reforms, notably a revised general sales tax, are unpopular and have given the opposition — as well as the MQM and the JUI — something to rail against. Many analysts speculate the parties could be using the crisis as a tactic to win concessions from the ruling party.
The MQM even raised the possibility on Monday that it might quit its partnership with the People’s Party in the coalition that governs Sindh province, putting even more pressure on the ruling party.
The lack of progress and political bickering has upset many Pakistanis.
"There is no electricity, no gas, no jobs and they are fighting one another," said Arif Fasiullah, 35, of the central city of Multan, in a recent interview. "They do not pass any legislation. They just do dirty politics."
The inflation rate in Pakistan is above 15 percent, according to government statistics, and the poorest are feeling the pain most.
Tahir Khan, 25, a laborer in the northwest city of Peshawar, said it has become harder to feed his family of six.
"I do not care what one leader says about the other. I am more concerned which leader gives us what," he said.
The People’s Party took power in February 2008 in elections that brought Pakistan out of nearly a decade of military rule. It rode to power on a wave of sympathy after its leader, Benazir Bhutto, was assassinated.
But its popularity has slipped as Pakistan has grappled with severe economic problems and frequent militant attacks.
The PML-N holds the second largest number of seats in parliament and is believed to be the most popular party in the country.
It is more aligned with religious conservatives than the People’s Party is and has not been as vocal in opposing the Taliban — a position that could cause some discomfort in Washington, which needs Pakistan’s help in ending the war in neighboring Afghanistan.
One unclear factor is where the military stands on the latest political wrangling.
Army chief Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani is reported to be unhappy with the current leadership, but not enthusiastic about its possible replacement. The army, under the leadership of retired Gen. Pervez Musharraf, ousted the PML-N’s Sharif, who was then prime minister, in a coup in 1999. But Kayani has not indicated any interest in staging a coup if the current government is toppled.
