Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs must be disconcerted by the ineffectual European, American and world response to the crisis. While Russians bombed and paratroopers rolled into Georgia, the West bombarded the Kremlin with diplomatic dispatches.
Ukraine finds itself in a precarious geopolitical situation. Russia truly represents a threat to an independent Ukraine. Moreover, Ukraine - like Georgia - is facing this threat on its own. The nation’s leaders must finally realize their isolation and vulnerability.
After wasting 17 years on political squabbles fueled by the redistribution of Soviet-era wealth, the nation is not secure. Ukraine, stuck between Hitler and Stalin in World War II, doesn’t have a favorable geographic position or friendly neighbors. Instead, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is reported to have openly sneered at the idea of Ukraine being a sovereign nation.
Russia’s adventurism in Georgia was meant to send the bluntest of signals to its neighbors: “Don’t get too cozy with the West, because we rule this region.” The fossilized communists and other Kremlin toadies all too willingly obey. But such a subservient response will only take Ukraine backwards.
To the contrary, the solution is for Ukraine to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization military alliance. Ukraine will have a better fate with NATO, a grouping of 26 democratic European and North American countries, rather than with Kremlin autocrats.
“NATO now!” should be the new rallying cry for all politicians in Ukraine. But as we have seen, the Kremlin-friendly Party of Regions and ex-Prime Minister Victor Yanukovych are determined to block and delay.
The desire of France and Germany not to irritate Russia, which supplies a quarter of Europe’s natural gas, is blamed for the April decision at the NATO summit in Bucharest to delay the membership applications of Ukraine and Georgia.
Ukraine’s political divisions and the ambivalence of average Ukrainians also contribute to wariness from the West. It’s all the more unfortunate because, outside of the three Baltic states, Ukraine and Georgia are the only two relatively bright spots for democracy among the 15 former Soviet republics.
Ukraine needs to take a couple of other steps as well.
Faced with a resurgent Russia, Ukraine’s military needs billions of hryvnias to improve its readiness and bring it closer to NATO standards. Ukraine’s leaders should also press for an earlier exit of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet from the nation’s territory than 2017, the year the current agreement expires.
It’s hard to say exactly who is to blame for the start-up of the hostilities between Georgia and Russia. Did South Ossetian separatists provoke Georgia with violence? Or did Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili blunder by invading the separatist province without anticipating the fury of the Russian response?
Either way, Ukraine and the Caucasus have similar circumstances that make them ripe for provocations.
Ukraine has a large ethnic Russian population that the Kremlin courts in its unyielding opposition to attempts at Western integration and NATO membership. Crimea has plenty of Russian troops and Russian passport holders, creating the opportunity for Kremlin leaders to justify an invasion as essential to protecting its citizens, as they did in South Ossetia.
Ukraine can start with a public education campaign on the benefits of NATO membership. With all the disinformation out there, such information is essential. But a campaign will take time and money to change public opinion.
Western leaders, meanwhile, should recognize that their ambivalence to Ukraine and Georgia is encouraging Russia to menace and threaten beyond the Caucasus and Black Sea.
The Kyiv Post is hosting comments and forums to foster lively debate. Criticism is fine, but stick to the issues. Comments that include profanity or personal attacks will be removed from the site. If you think that a posted comment violates these standards, please flag it and alert us. We will take steps to block violators.
Comments (0)
