Like Georgia, Ukraine is vulnerable. Neither has yet joined NATO. This could still take years, and until then, both have no security guarantees.
What can Ukraine do in the mid-term to protect itself from a bullying northern neighbor?
Quite simply, get closer to big friends that could, on a psychological level at least, deter the big bully from breaking down your door.
Kyiv’s pro-Western President Victor Yushchenko has squandered his presidency by hesitation, half-steps and unprincipled compromises. But, in the recent crisis over the Russian attack of Georgia, the president has exhibited true leadership.
Yushchenko was right to offer Western countries use of Ukraine’s early missile warning system and satellite tracking system. Even absent formal guarantees, becoming part of the Western security system is one way for Ukraine to make Moscow think twice before making a move. We also support Yushchenko’s bold move to increase regulation of how Russia uses its Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol. Yet we fear this could provoke Russia into making moves that would challenge Ukraine’s territorial integrity before the nation is ready to defend itself.
Another way Ukraine and Georgia can win informal security guarantees from the West, before joining NATO, is to be closer involved in the European Union’s security and defense program. Such a move is being pushed aggressively by Hryhory Nemyria, deputy prime minister in Yulia Tymoshenko’s government in charge of European integration.
Having dragged their feet on the NATO question, EU countries should immediately include both Kyiv and Tbilisi. Doing so would possibly deter further aggressive Russian action. It would also protect EU interests along its own borders and, in particular, with two countries seen as key transit routes for energy that bypasses a Russia that is increasingly encircling Europe with pipelines.
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