If the polls are right, and we believe they are, Barack Obama will be the next president of the United States.

What will an Obama presidency mean for Ukraine? Unfortunately, thanks to eight years of reckless leadership by President George W. Bush, not as much as it could.

America will spend the next several years preoccupied with getting its economy on the right track. The Bush “bubble” of incompetence not only burst, it exploded calamitously all over the globe. Moreover, America’s power is not what it once was. America not only became economically weaker under Bush’s leadership, but the nation’s reputation slipped abroad.

Still, the U.S. election matters to Ukraine. The big concern, as usual, is getting an American president who treats Ukraine as an independent strategic ally, not as a minor nation whose interests are secondary to America’s relations with Moscow.

Whoever wins, Ukraine will have a friend in the White House. On balance, however, we believe that the Democratic Obama will be better-suited than Republican John McCain.

On the issue of Ukraine’s bullying neighbor, we agree with McCain’s assessment: “Russia has now become a nation fueled by petro-dollars that has basically become a KGB apparatchik-run government. I looked in Mr. [Vladimir] Putin’s eyes and saw three letters – a K, a G and B.”

But we also believe that McCain would be more likely to alienate Moscow than gain meaningful agreements. We also believe McCain’s preoccupation with Islamic extremism would lead him to turn a blind eye to Moscow’s excesses, in exchange for the Kremlin’s support for America’s war on terror.

The hope is for a U.S. leader who talks tough with the Russians, but also finds ways to work with them without accepting Russia’s absurd claim that Ukraine is part of its “privileged” sphere. Obama seems temperamentally better-suited to this challenge. His popularity across the globe could be used to bolster support for Ukraine’s bid to join NATO and the European Union.

Likewise, he stands a better chance of using his clout to convince the Russians on key issues. The future of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, territorial integrity and other Ukraine-Russia disputes are divides where U.S. involvement can inflame Moscow and prove counter-productive. A cool-headed Obama stands a stronger chance of avoiding such landmines.