Just in time for the winter holidays, the Russian government is threatening to cut off Ukraine’s natural gas supply unless the nation pays off its $2.4 billion debt and signs a new contract by Jan. 1. Happy New Year, Vladimir Vladimirovich!

In the long march of history, progress is being made. Kremlin leaders in the early 20th century starved Ukrainian men, women and children to death. Their successors in the 21st century merely threaten to freeze Ukrainians to death.

The unsubtle Kremlin gets no points for timing. The threat to cut off  gas in the dead of winter came over the weekend that Ukrainians commemorated the Holodomor, the death by hunger of millions of Ukrainians in 1932-33. The Soviets lied about the Stalin-ordered famine and today’s Russian leadership still belittles the epic crime.

Russian leaders are a strange group to be lecturing about free-market prices. Loyalty is what they really want. Russia’s precious gas comes with more conditions than a Christmas tree has decorations. Play ball nicely, which means behaving like obedient “little Russians,” then a nation can expect to get steep discounts and easy payment terms. Get uppity and start talking about NATO and the Holodomor as genocide, then the price of gas rises and payment is suddenly cash on delivery.

We don’t know the exact amount of Ukraine’s debt to Russia for natural gas. We suspect that leaders in both nations have a hard time untangling the figure since so many deals are loaded with shady intermediaries, quid pro quos and other murky conditions. But we suspect both sides will find an accommodation before long.

Fortunately, this is a standoff in which Ukraine’s geography gives it advantages. Since most Russian gas sent to Western Europe travels through Ukraine, the nation can cope with a shutoff by siphoning some of the fuel for its own needs. Russians know this well from their brief attempt in 2006 at shutoff and blackmail.

But the larger lesson here is that Ukrainians should do everything in their powers to wean themselves off Russian gas and dependence on the self-pitying bullies who run that otherwise splendid nation.