Russia’s Chance (Answer to Trenin)

I would like to ask Trenin and other Russians two questions.

Firstly, one could make as strong an argument after Russia’s invasion of Georgia in August that the Crimea could be destabilised  regardless of whether Ukraine moves to NATO membership. Not by Ukraine’s drive to NATO but by a Russian regime dominated by nationalism, angry at its alleged humiliation in the 1990s and unwilling to accept Ukraine’s sovereignty over Crimea or Sevastopol.  Russia’s protestations that it supports Ukraine’s territorial integrity carry little weight after Moscow recognised the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Relations between Ukraine and Russia are rock bottom. Both countries Ministries of Foreign Affairs hurl insults at each other on a regular basis. Ukraine’s MFA accuses Russia of already destabilising the Crimea when Ukraine is very far from a Membership Action Plan and especially NATO membership.

Secondly, if  Russia seeks to de-rail Ukraine’s NATO drive it needs to offer something to Kyiv. That compensation could be EU membership.

Russia has influence over the most ardent opponents of EU enlargement to Ukraine: France, Germany, Belgium and Italy. Why does Moscow not broker a deal with ‘old Europe’ by reducing its opposition to Ukraine’s EU membership in return for Ukraine reducing its support for NATO membership.

Currently, Ukraine feels insecure because of Russia’s more assertive posture and because ‘old Europe’ is blocking its membership of both NATO or the EU. With Ukraine not fulfilling Germany’s criteria for a MAP of political stability Kyiv has little chance of receiving one at the December NATO review meeting. Last month the EU also did not offer Ukraine membership prospects.

Russophile Western scholars such as Anatoly Lieven and Russian scholars such as Dmitry Trenin need to focus on the fact that Ukraine will not feel secure if  both Western clubs continue to be denied to it.  It is time that Russia’s friends stop trying to undermine Ukraine’s path to NATO by threatening it with a ‘political earthquake’ and instead focus on changing western Europe’s stance on Ukraine’s desire to join the EU.

All post-communist states that have joined the EU have first joined NATO. Perhaps Ukraine could be different? In doing so it would follow Ireland, Austria, Finland and Sweden who are members of the EU but not of NATO (rather than Norway and Turkey who are only members of NATO).