ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 31, 2025

Latest from the Institute for the Study of War.

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

  • US President Donald Trump stated on March 30 that there is an unspecified “psychological deadline” for Russia to agree to a general ceasefire amid continued Russian efforts to hold the temporary ceasefire in the Black Sea hostage to stall efforts toward a general ceasefire and extract additional concessions from the West.
  • Russian officials continue efforts to undermine the proposed US-Ukrainian mineral deal by promoting potential US-Russian rare earth mining projects.
  • The Kremlin continues efforts to sow division between the United States and Europe.
  • Ukraine’s European allies continue to provide financial and military aid to Ukraine.
  • Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk. Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk and Sumy oblasts and near Kupyansk, Kurakhove and Velyka Novosilka.
  • Russia is reportedly struggling to restore what few tanks remain in its stocks.

Authors: Angelica Evans, Davit Gasparyan, Olivia Gibson, Daria Novikov, and George Barros with Nate Trotter and William Runkel.

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