Millions of Ukrainian refugees in the EU could see their legal status thrown into jeopardy, with no clear plan to allow them to stay after a ceasefire with Russia.
Since Russia’s invasion in February 2022, the EU’s Temporary Protection Directive (TPD) has been a legal lifeline for nearly 4.3 million Ukrainians.
It allows EU countries to grant Ukrainians the right to live, work, and access services, with most settling in Poland, Germany, Czechia, and Slovakia.
But with ceasefire talks ongoing, this safety net could be pulled away.
Recent surveys signal that the number of refugees planning to return to Ukraine is dropping. United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) data shows a drop from 65% in 2024 from 77% the previous year.
The share of those undecided rose to 24% in 2024 from 18%, and the number saying they have no hope of returning has more than doubled – to 11% from 5%.
A ceasefire could flip the script overnight, leaving host countries to decide whether to wind down these protections, push for integration, or nudge refugees back home.
In a bloc frequently paralysed by migration debates, any EU-level action to extend temporary protection once again is likely to be politically fraught.
The Directive is still ‘temporary’
The TPD, dubbed the EU asylum system’s “sleeping beauty,” sat unused since its adoption in 2001 – until Russia’s full-scale invasion triggered its first-ever use.
Last year, EU governments agreed to extend the TPD to March 2026, going well beyond its initial framework, which allowed for a two-year protection period with a possible one-year renewal. Any extension is made year by year.
There could be “future extensions again,” according to Jasmijn Slootjes, deputy director at the Migration Policy Institute Europe.
However, while the directive has offered quick protection, its temporary nature creates drawbacks for Ukrainians.
“If you only have a one-year legal status, securing a long-term rental agreement becomes very difficult,” Slootjes said. “Employers are not as likely to offer you a contract.”
Protection levels also vary by country. Each EU country interprets a directive in slightly different ways in their national law, meaning Ukrainians are treated differently depending on where they settle.
The Commission said it’s started looking at next steps, including “whether or not to extend” temporary protection, help people switch to national statuses for work, study, or family reunification, and support those who choose to return to Ukraine.
Czech centre-right Interior Minister Vít Rakušan confirmed that Czechia, along with Germany and the Commission, is actively involved in shaping a joint response under the Polish Presidency. “But the specific conditions are yet to be negotiated,” Rakušan said.
The Council is set to address the issue at the next Home Affairs Council in June, Euractiv has learned.
Any decision to end temporary protection will need agreement from all member states, Czech interior ministry spokesperson Hana Malá confirmed, adding they expected a common EU position to be reached in the first half of this year.
At the national level
Some countries aren’t waiting for Brussels and have taken actions to find “more long-term regular status,” Slootjes said.
Poland will soon offer a three-year national temporary residence status to Ukrainians who’ve had uninterrupted temporary protection for at least a year.
In Czechia, a new special five-year residence permit will be available for Ukrainians who have lived there for over two years and are employed, with mandatory school attendance for their children.
But even Prague, one of the biggest host countries, has made clear it won’t issue any new temporary protections “once the war is over,” the interior minister said on X.
Other capitals are drawing up their own plans. Austria, Italy, Estonia, and Latvia are stepping up with long-term solutions, with varying levels of protection.
Germany’s interior ministry said it had already developed options for action, but it is up to the next government to decide what proposals will actually be put forward on this issue,” emphasizing the need for a cohesive European approach.
The Slovak interior ministry confirmed that further steps regarding displaced persons after the end of the Russian invasion are “currently being discussed at the level of member states, including Slovakia, as well as at the EU level.”
This report by Aneta Zachová, Aleksandra Krzysztoszek, Nick Alipour and Natália Silenská is reprinted from Euractiv and the original can be seen