ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 9, 2025

Latest from the Institute for the Study of War.

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

  • Russian forces continue to marginally advance in the Sumy-Kursk Oblast border area, but the Russian force grouping in the area will likely be unable to launch a major offensive operation against Sumy City in the near term without receiving significant reinforcements.
  • The Russian military command is likely attempting to form a buffer zone along the international border in Sumy Oblast, although Russian commanders may intend to press further into Sumy Oblast and towards Sumy City in the future.
  • Russia continues to utilize North Korean troops in Kursk Oblast, but ISW has not yet observed indications that North Korean troops are operating as combat forces in Ukraine.
  • Syrskyi stated that there are currently 623,000 Russian military personnel fighting against Ukraine.
  • Syrskyi also spoke about Ukraine’s efforts to further develop its tactical and long-range drone capabilities.
  • The People’s Republic of China (PRC) denied sending military personnel to fight in Ukraine following Ukrainian reports of Chinese nationals fighting alongside Russian forces.
  • Ukrainian forces advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.
  • Russian forces advanced near Kupyansk, Lyman, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
  • The Russian federal government and Russian federal subjects are increasingly focused on veteran rehabilitation and reintegration.

Authors: Olivia Gibson, Grace Mappes, Christina Harward, Davit Gasparyan, Daria Novikov, and Frederick W. Kagan.

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